I have some strong evidence that orange juice has bottomed and we are starting a strong bullish trend, let’ go to the facts. First of all, we have non-commercials for the last 6 weeks taking profits in their shorts and this move has accelerated this week at the point that we got a COT signal to go long. The signal is triggered when the stochastics indicator applied to non-commercials net positions enter an overbought region, this means that they are pushing harder to the long side.
Well from risk-return it completes worth the shot here, if we are wrong the stop loss is very cheap and the price is accumulating for the first time after this massive downtrend.
After a little research in my database, I found two interesting news articles. The first one is from seeking alpha and what got my attention was this:
"In summary, dryness in Brazil will be closely watched by coffee traders in the weeks and months ahead. I believe staying long coffee will be a smart play into October. There are several teleconnections around the globe with respect to ocean temperatures, I watch, that will play a critical role for soybeans (SOYB), coffee, wheat (WEAT), orange juice and other commodities."
And this another of from the economist and my eyes were focused on this:
"But the pact should improve market access for French cheese, Brazilian orange juice, and Argentine fish, as well as car parts made in Europe, which now attract Mercosur tariffs of 14-18%."
Folks, in other words, this profit-taking has a reason, the demand for orange juice is about to increase globally so I conclude that this commodity is mispriced and we can profit from this.
Well from risk-return it completes worth the shot here, if we are wrong the stop loss is very cheap and the price is accumulating for the first time after this massive downtrend.
After a little research in my database, I found two interesting news articles. The first one is from seeking alpha and what got my attention was this:
"In summary, dryness in Brazil will be closely watched by coffee traders in the weeks and months ahead. I believe staying long coffee will be a smart play into October. There are several teleconnections around the globe with respect to ocean temperatures, I watch, that will play a critical role for soybeans (SOYB), coffee, wheat (WEAT), orange juice and other commodities."
And this another of from the economist and my eyes were focused on this:
"But the pact should improve market access for French cheese, Brazilian orange juice, and Argentine fish, as well as car parts made in Europe, which now attract Mercosur tariffs of 14-18%."
Folks, in other words, this profit-taking has a reason, the demand for orange juice is about to increase globally so I conclude that this commodity is mispriced and we can profit from this.