The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program starting on December 1, 2025. This prospect raises many questions within the crypto community, particularly regarding the possibility of a scenario similar to that of August 2019, when the end of QT coincided with a renewed strength in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin. While the comparison is tempting, it nevertheless deserves careful examination.
In 2019, the end of QT marked a turning point: the gradual easing of monetary conditions helped improve investors' risk appetite. The altcoins/BTC ratio then began to rise, reflecting a rotation toward more speculative assets. The macro environment played a role: easing bond yields, greater liquidity, and a still relatively young crypto market where flows could quickly shift.
The situation in 2025 presents some parallels, but also significant differences. On the macroeconomic level, the end of QT could again signal a stabilization of monetary policy, or even a transition toward a less restrictive stance. In this context, renewed interest in riskier assets — including altcoins — remains plausible. Historically, phases of Fed balance-sheet expansion or slowing contraction have often supported overall liquidity, which can benefit cryptocurrencies.
However, several factors temper this analogy. First, the crypto market is now more structured and institutionalized than in 2019. Bitcoin occupies a much stronger place as a macro-correlated asset, supported by the presence of ETFs and growing institutional recognition. This dynamic may limit, at least partly, the massive capital rotation into altcoins observed in previous cycles.
Second, altcoins themselves now evolve in a far more competitive landscape than six years ago. Market "natural selection" could slow down a homogeneous rise: some projects may benefit far more than others.
Ultimately, the end of QT in December 2025 could create a more favorable environment for a relative outperformance of altcoins versus Bitcoin, similar to 2019. But this scenario will depend on many macroeconomic, structural, and crypto-specific factors. Analytical caution therefore remains essential, even if the end of the Fed's QT is clearly a theoretically positive factor for altcoins.
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This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
In 2019, the end of QT marked a turning point: the gradual easing of monetary conditions helped improve investors' risk appetite. The altcoins/BTC ratio then began to rise, reflecting a rotation toward more speculative assets. The macro environment played a role: easing bond yields, greater liquidity, and a still relatively young crypto market where flows could quickly shift.
The situation in 2025 presents some parallels, but also significant differences. On the macroeconomic level, the end of QT could again signal a stabilization of monetary policy, or even a transition toward a less restrictive stance. In this context, renewed interest in riskier assets — including altcoins — remains plausible. Historically, phases of Fed balance-sheet expansion or slowing contraction have often supported overall liquidity, which can benefit cryptocurrencies.
However, several factors temper this analogy. First, the crypto market is now more structured and institutionalized than in 2019. Bitcoin occupies a much stronger place as a macro-correlated asset, supported by the presence of ETFs and growing institutional recognition. This dynamic may limit, at least partly, the massive capital rotation into altcoins observed in previous cycles.
Second, altcoins themselves now evolve in a far more competitive landscape than six years ago. Market "natural selection" could slow down a homogeneous rise: some projects may benefit far more than others.
Ultimately, the end of QT in December 2025 could create a more favorable environment for a relative outperformance of altcoins versus Bitcoin, similar to 2019. But this scenario will depend on many macroeconomic, structural, and crypto-specific factors. Analytical caution therefore remains essential, even if the end of the Fed's QT is clearly a theoretically positive factor for altcoins.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.