Are alt season dreams about to become a nightmare? - Oct 21st
The term “alt season” refers roughly to the 10-month period that historically follows each Bitcoin halving, a window when capital rotation from Bitcoin into the broader crypto market drives explosive gains across alternative tokens.
The above 10 day chart shows the OTHERS market total (top 125 cryptos excluding BTC, ETH, XRP, and stable coins). Historically this 10-month phase has been a golden era for alt holders. But this time… something’s changed.
Back in June, I published “Is Alt Season Dead?”, the premise was simple: price action had already failed to respond in the first half of the window. Fast forward to October, and that thesis hasn’t just held, it’s been confirmed.
While influencers continue chanting “Get in before it’s too late!”, the chart says otherwise.
The facts are undeniable:
Let’s talk RSI
What’s causing all this?
Conclusions
The 2025 “alt season” wasn’t a bull run, it was a slow unwind disguised as optimism.
The data shows structural weakness, not strength.
If RSI fails to hold 45, history suggests another 70–80% drawdown across the alt market is not only possible but likely. This isn’t fear-mongering, it’s statistical repetition.
The dream of alt season has turned into the perfect trap.
And most are still cheering it on.
Ww
========================================
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and expresses personal opinion, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are speculative and high-risk. Always perform your own research, understand your exposure, and base decisions on confirmation, not narrative.
Patience, risk control, and data (not hype) decide who survives the next cycle.
The above 10 day chart shows the OTHERS market total (top 125 cryptos excluding BTC, ETH, XRP, and stable coins). Historically this 10-month phase has been a golden era for alt holders. But this time… something’s changed.
Back in June, I published “Is Alt Season Dead?”, the premise was simple: price action had already failed to respond in the first half of the window. Fast forward to October, and that thesis hasn’t just held, it’s been confirmed.
While influencers continue chanting “Get in before it’s too late!”, the chart says otherwise.
The facts are undeniable:
- The 10-month window has closed, and altcoins failed to deliver.
- Support has failed, price action has exited its ascending channel for the second time.
- A bear flag has printed, projecting an additional $140 billion decline in total market cap, returning valuations back to early-2021 levels.
Let’s talk RSI
The RSI must close October above 45 (blue circles) to avoid confirmation of breakdown.
If that fails, expect the pattern that has defined every prior cycle: an 80% correction across the market total.
Look left. Each time RSI failed to hold this zone, the market total collapsed. And this time a collapse would revert to test the 2017 cycle top, a key structural backtest that historically marked capitulation.
In simple terms:
Above 45 → possible stabilisation
Below 45 → capitulation risk rises sharply.
What’s causing all this?
Two forces have combined to break the old altcoin model:
1. Token dilution
The flood of new tokens has fragmented liquidity beyond recognition. The market is now so diluted that true value plays are buried beneath layers of speculative noise. Most investors aren’t selecting projects, they’re using a "spray and pray" approach. This is unsustainable, and a grand flush-out is overdue.
2. Leverage dependence
At present, leveraged products account for nearly three times the capital entering spot markets. This imbalance has turned what used to be natural corrections into systemic liquidations. The $19 billion wipeout earlier this month wasn’t an accident, it was the inevitable result of excess leverage meeting low liquidity. Don't blame market manipulators, it was you.
Until that dynamic resets, alt season as we once knew it simply cannot exist.
Conclusions
The 2025 “alt season” wasn’t a bull run, it was a slow unwind disguised as optimism.
The data shows structural weakness, not strength.
If RSI fails to hold 45, history suggests another 70–80% drawdown across the alt market is not only possible but likely. This isn’t fear-mongering, it’s statistical repetition.
The dream of alt season has turned into the perfect trap.
And most are still cheering it on.
Ww
========================================
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and expresses personal opinion, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are speculative and high-risk. Always perform your own research, understand your exposure, and base decisions on confirmation, not narrative.
Patience, risk control, and data (not hype) decide who survives the next cycle.
Note
Still believe in the alt season narrative? Would love to read your arguments below.Note
$877.11M long liquidations in the past 24hrs, wonderful. Mostly on Bitcoin longs.coinglass.com/LiquidationData
Was it a good moment to go long last 24hrs? Absolutely not. Why? Broken market structure. If you don't learn this stuff, you're going to keep on providing liquidity to those that do. Is that what you want? To be the market makers liquidity?
4hr
Trade active
Hard to believe, the 3 day OTHERS total has confirmed past support as resistance. A forecast that would see $113 billion wiped off the total.3 day
What could contribute to such a slaughter?
There's some obvious culprits part of the OTHERS total that could easily contribute to this sell off volume:
Chainlink (LINK) - $11.5billion market cap speculation that no one uses. The entire use case of this project the proposition was obsolete some years as AI came to fore. A 80% correction is forecast, as a bearish divergence in equal strength to 2021 divergence now prints.
4 week
DOGEcoin, (DOGE)
$27billion market cap, these valuations are beyond insanity. Generation Z are off the chain, but also desperate. Here structural support has failed. Should the bulls fail to return price action to structure before the end of the month, then a 80% correction is forecast. What's that, $22billion up in smoke?
Cardano (ADA)
A $21 billion dollar nothing burger. A valuation marked by loyalty only. The true believers who care not for fail empty promise after empty promise. No utility no value.
Another bear flag confirmation unless the month end can close in structure. Otherwise a 80% correction is forecast wiping off $16billion dollars.
Not all charts in OTHERS are like this, but it is clear, if there is to be a $100 billion sell off in the OTHERS total, the sources of this volume has some obvious contributors.
Note
Yes AVAX too... legacy support breakout.I'm not deliberately trying to be a mega Bear, these are instead warnings told by facts of the chart.
At the same time we have influencers spouting the bullish narrative 24/7.
These influencers don't care if you succeed or not, they care about their views.
6 day
Note
A break below $225billion would be a break of market structure.A break of market structure would confirm the bear flag forecast.
The forecast returns price action to the proximity of 2017 levels.
Notice how Dash, Zcash returned impressive rallies recently without OTHERS increasing an inch? That is what this market is now, money chasing one narrative to the next with no new money entering the space.
Still believe a green quarter 4 is coming? Leave your comments below as to why, would love to read them.
8 day chart
Note
Remember what was said in the last update, market structure must hold.At this time alt token holder are in "sell everything before it goes to zero" mode.
They're probably right, 99% of it is a scam.
Note
Everyone enjoying quarter 4 "alt season" promised to them by the influencers?I don't know what is about to happen, but there's chart evidence to suggest another $100 billion of value on the OTHERS total is about to go up in smoke. The volume most likely comes from the overbought bloaters in the space, Solana etc.. that market cap area.
Note
One month of three remaining of the "green quarter 4" promised by the influencers. Are you feeling it?Note
Soon be time to liquidate all those profits from the green quarter 4 promised to us by the Crypto influencers.Sarcasm.
The nonsense spouted by "rotation from Bitcoin to lower caps" from those folk, and it never happened. Why? The chart dummy.
3 day chart
If a wider market crash is coming, then crypto people should focus on the monthly, especially as 2025 comes to a close. Please ignore the garbage on social media, it really is awful.
On the monthly chart below we can see a break of support. Just like the 3 week break of support when Bitcoin was hovering around $120k (very unpopular idea, just read the comments). If the support confirms as broken, the market total WILL revisit the 2017 high. Yes, the last 8 years erased.
Monthly
Note
There's almost 10 million more alt tokens from the time this idea was published. Yet the dilution of the market, the increased token circulation, does not raise an eyebrow amongst the most bullish of influencers. Perhaps they've got an different agenda.. "And today's sponsor is... sign up now for your bs bonus!"
Note
Soon be time to cash in that glorious quarter 4 "alt token season" the influencers promised us.I think my first purchase will be a tin of baked beans and a loaf of bread.
Note
Did we all enjoy the quarter 4 alt season?
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.