OUTFRONT Media, Inc. leases advertising space on out-of-home advertising structures and sites. Its inventory consists of billboard displays, which are primarily located on the most heavily traveled highways & roadways, and transit advertising displays operated under exclusive multi-year contracts with municipalities in large cities across the U.S. and Canada. OUT has a MODERATE quantitative fundamental score (Greater than 6) with good analyst prospects (Buy and Hold ratings). Furthermore, OUT has a fair dividend pay out @ 0.20 per share/year (Approximately 1.2% of the entry cost a 16.51). Therefore, this OUT long play has shallow-value at the price levels from 16.51 - 16.23.
In this idea, we have a bat-pattern showing us that price should maintain a reversal from the previous low between 15.00 - 14.92. I expect price to descend to 16.51ish, filling the 4H gap (SEE ENTRY CHART BELOW IN THE UPDATES). I would set the stop-loss for approximately 3%; however, I'd consider averaging into a position on this trade, if price goes below the stop (I don't expect it to). Once the 0.382 target is acquired, I would sell half of my position and set trailing stop-loss runners to trail price by the 'Average True Range' of multiple timeframes. Once price has reached the 0.618 target, I would sell the other half of my position. The first target nets 23.14% (Risk-to-Reward of 7.35) and the second target nets 43.13% (Risk-to-Reward of 13.69). Averaging these percentage gains out and adding for the dividend (I would expect to hold this for at least one year), one would profit approximately 34.34% of their original investment.
Plugging in the probability for success of a bat pattern and the R:R values into our Kelly Criterion betting calculator for an account of $1000, we get;
FIRST TARGET Probability: 0.85 Odds: 7.35 Bankroll:$1000
Calculation: Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.8296 Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $829.59
SECOND TARGET Probability: 0.85 Odds: 13.69 Bankroll:$1000
Calculation: Kelly Criterion (Adjusted) - 0.8390 Bet This Much (Adjusted) - $839.04
Therefore, one should bet approximately 82.9% - 83.9% of their normal lot size. Good luck and trade safely!