PALLADIUM: Bounce, Trap, Drop

Mar 18

Seven failed attempts to break support have created a dangerous illusion of safety for the bulls. While the market prepares for a liquidity hunt to $1710.00, the underlying structure points to a classic "trap-and-drop" sequence that could catch many off guard.

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Technicals:

1. Palladium is currently trading near a local high within a broad medium-term range of [$1360.00, $1845.00].

2. Since 2020, the lower boundary [$1360, $1390] (S/R Mar. 2020) and the upper boundary [$1815.00, $1845.00] (S/R June 2020) have REPEATEDLY served as support and resistance zones, depending on the market context.

3. After establishing a local high at $2129.00 and failing to sustain price action above [$1815.00, $1845.00], the price has been moving within a descending sideways range.

4. In February and March 2026, the price (2) twice tested the upper boundary of the channel [$1815.00, $1845.00] with false breakouts, followed by a descending trend correction.

5. As of today (March 18, 2026), the median line of the medium-term channel [$1360.00, $1845.00] is acting as the primary support zone. Since January 2026, the price has made 7 (SEVEN!) attempts to break through this [$1545.00, $1575.00] zone on the 1D TF.

This indicates three key things:

- This support zone is exceptionally strong in the local picture and serves as a main point for determining the local trend.
- Should buyers hold this zone, the price may attempt a bounce toward [$1692.00, $1746.00] to collect liquidity, with a maximum target of retesting $1815.00.
- In the event of a final breakdown and a confirmed close below $1545.00, the price will head toward $1370.00.

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Conclusion:

In the medium term, the probability of continued downward movement toward $1350.00 is higher than a reversal and a continuation of the bullish trend.

The setup outlines 2 potential price action scenarios:

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Scenario 1: Price gets locally rejected from the [$1545.00, $1575.00] zone
(Trigger: Entry ONLY after confirmation of a $1710.00 liquidity collection and weak price structure—evidenced by choppy movements or numerous upper wicks).

✅ Entry Point 1 SHORT: $1718.00
🛑 Stop-Loss: $1863.00
🤑 Target 1: $1431.00
🤑 Target 2: $1350.00

Continuous trading for 2-3 days at or above the [$1815.00, $1845.00] zone will signal an upcoming breakout and bull trend continuation, invalidating this scenario.

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Scenario 2: Price penetrates the psychological [$1545.00, $1575.00] zone
(Trigger: Entry after the price collects liquidity at $1515.00 and subsequently retests $1545.00 from below).

✅ Entry Point 2 SHORT: $1545.00
🛑 Stop-Loss: Above the high of the 1D candle that penetrates the zone.
🤑 Target 1: $1431.00
🤑 Target 2: $1350.00

A price close above the 1D candle that penetrates the [1545.00, 1575.00] zone invalidates the bearish continuation.

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Good Luck! ☺️

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DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Everyone must make trading decisions at their own risk, guided only by their own criteria and strategy for opening or not opening a trade.

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P.S. Everyone sees the support. Some definitely think there is a trap. I know which side I’m on. But where do you stand?
P.P.S. See analysis on other Metals in related publication on the >>>

Mar 19

Note

The price has strongly penetrated the [$1545.00, $1575.00] support zone, meaning that the 2nd scenario is in play.
Looking now for S/R zone to be retested and planned Entry Point with suitable Risk-Reward

Mar 19

Trade active

Price reached 1st Target

Mar 23

Trade closed: target reached

Price reached second and final TP

Apr 1

Note

Looks more like trap, drop, bounce