Here's the simplest way to play crypto over the next few months and still make money:
1st Simplest Profitable Crypto Setup into 2022:
-Long PAXGOLD -Shit SHORTCOIN
Here's the second simplest and probably worth the non-existent risk at these levels:
-Long PAXGOLD -Short Bitcoin -Long MANA
No doubt some people out there believe that decentralized coins will, by default, become the next "obvious" safe haven against "risk assets" (lol), inflation, and becoming fully "employed."
Despite these people's misuse and overuse of quotation marks, not to mention their nearly dogmatic misunderstanding that multiple safe-haven assets are allowed to trend up simultaneously...
...I do like the concept of decentralized currency very much. Perhaps even more than I do the concept of gold retaining physical value, ad infinitum.
So, probably should, like, throw a couple hundred or grand at Mana, put it all in a vault, and wait until sometime soon before it doubles.
@DannyFoss, very useful for very illegal things. nothing quite like it in terms of anonymity.
long but wait to see how it reacts to bitcoin. should have said the same about mana, i just assume that cost basis for something like that is irrelevant (sorta) at these levels.
horacejunior
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Hmmmm. Why short the corn? I think the time to have done that might be passed. You of course could be right but seems like sideways/range is most likely, no? Unless you’re expecting a rate hike…
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@horacejunior, well, i know i did ya wrong on this one a few months back and I am hesitant to make "short bitcoin" the main point of the trade idea for this reason. but, a couple technical things strike me as weird/setting up for mid-20s consolidation.
first, the move to new ATH is done in such a way that you cannot formulate a corrective wave count that makes logical sense given the prior swings. second, we legit went vertically down to 38k from 63k in like a day, only to then immediately get parabolically bought to new ATH. Ive just never seen this before across any other market and I believe its because of how excessively leveraged it is even compared with all the equities contracts that get traded. I cannot prove this of course, since half of these ECNs are as opaque as dark pools, if not more sketch. lastly, and still technically, the type of pattern that I am now seeing pretty clearly is a mirror-foldback pattern, where all the price action can be divided by a 45 diagonal (in this case, in between the big pullback to 38k and the beginning of the last move up) and by which the first of price action repeats itself in a similar-looking-but-different more condensed version.
I know the last point is complicated, but is the main driver of my same opinion that BTC needs to touch 20s again before next leg up to regain the momentum required for six figs.
Also, 1) nice to hear from you and 2) MANA is like much cheaper.
horacejunior
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@Perma_Pig, you too! Haha. I own some mana since sub $1 :) I’m a fan. I agree — liquidity and buying sentiment point to 29-40 which is where my buy orders are but who knows if it will get there. I did short from 57-47 but I just know how btc fucks with people trapping shorts and failed breakouts galore. But I see what you’re saying, which is buy some PaxG!
DannyFoss
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@Perma_Pig, a tech analyst by the name of Gareth Soloway that appears on kitco news echos the 20,000 retest.
DannyFoss
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What is best trading strategy to grow 15k account after losing 12k on gdxj long calls? Are you a premium seller?
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@DannyFoss, probably long gdxj long calls right now. or wait until above 48, as prescribed in the idea. its at the bottom of the arc now and held nicely into the weekend.
but, losing 12k is not fun and Id probably be disenchanted as well. best bet is to short AMD or Apple using 3-4 out of the money puts expiring 12/23. thatll be the safest route to getting the most out of a potential severe selloff without taking too much risk given your 15k in capital.
the best best thing to do is to find a way to long GDXJ calls, short (sell premium) calls on AAPL and AMD 5 bucks above ATM for this week, and then also pick up a few speculative puts at the strike mentioned above for each stock + NFLX puts at 595 (this FAANG is the weakest of the bunch).
Summary:
Assuming you can sell short options with 15k (some places have a 25k min requirement), the ideal strategy is to:
i) sell premium above the current ATM strike for this week expiration, 2) buy long puts on every stock you sell premium on, but make these puts 3-4 bucks out-the-money from current strike, and, 3) buy calls on GDXJ, but wait to see how it reacts to a broader equity selloff. id say that if the market tanks 5-7% any day this week and GDXJ holds 40 into the close, then its a certain long with two weeks of theta on em.
Hope this helps, sorry you lost 12k, luckily you can get it back (and then some) very quickly given the setup this week.
DannyFoss
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@Perma_Pig, very kind of you. I'm long JNUG over the weekend. Obviously scared shirtless on buying any calls at this point. I was long 12/31 gdxj calls at 48 strike after it went from 48 to 44. I bought 200 contracts at 61 cents a piece thinking it would go back to a buck or so and it just yeah though and it just fell off a cliff. I was just getting going with my trading career and lost half in a week. I suppose I'm at lesson one keep my positions small.
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@DannyFoss, you know, it could be much worse. the fact that you still want to trade this week is a good thing for you long term. I, along with anyone who has a career in this business for more than a few years, has paid tuition to maintain their pro status for as long as they have.
I lost 62k in a day during my first year as pro (if only my 3-minute bathroom break were 2 mins instead!) is what I had kicked myself over for many weeks after. Of course, the extended bathroom break was not the problem; it was that I owned the whole float in a thinly traded biotech penny stock without even realizing it during or after. Now, if Im still a licensed trader earning a living as such after this ridiculous episode of dumb-assery, then you should be just fine.
A couple of things though - trading short-term or even same week/day calls in any gold derivative is a mistake unless its some sort of third hedge like how I did it above. The main reason is because gold is very manipulated during overseas session and its not reliable until the bull move has become extremely obvious to anyone who looks at it. Trying to front-run a breakout in the mining juniors is a bad idea that you now can understand with experience. Guess what? You still have over half your capital when most people would be blanked clean. Take this as the positive from the experience because its rare to see people able to cut losses like that.
Now for some tangible advice that can help you immediately prevent losses like that and also give you more space to be wrong: It is ALWAYS better to have fewer contracts that are at the money than many that are even a buck out of the money. The reason is cause if you are immediately incorrect and get whipsawed (common in topping patterns like today's market), you have almost no alternative than to take your losses immediately. The premium crush is so severe in such choppy markets like these that it just aint worth the potential 10-bag that has zero chance of hitting until theres a clear trend.
I like the way you approach markets and you can clearly keep your aggressive style without fear because you are able to take Ls immediately. This is a very positive skill for new guys to have. I would keep your head up and know that a 12k loss is 1) pretty mild compared to what your inevitably going to lose in a single trade probably in the next few months and 2) that you made a mistake, acknowledged it, sought advice and took the mistake personally enough to get scared of doing it again.
Now then, the one thing you can do for me is report back in a week to let me know whether this one tweak of closer-money options has helped at all because if it doesnt, then the core improvement may be quickly fixed by adjusting initial position size. Can only know this once you try out the first thing, so let me know.