PBR Base Formation with Upside Target Zone

1025 27 4
Please fix the label as "LONG" instead of "NEUTRAL". Thank you.

PBR             has had a long bear market this year, falling from over $32 to under $18 along with a massive slide in the Brazilian stock market. PBR             is a major element of the Brazilian stock market.

The sellers have knocked down the price of PBR             to bargain-basement levels, but it has been like a falling safe.

What has happened to the shares over the past three months is a base-formation has formed. Although we are at the top end of that base formation, the key is that the base formation seems solid. The downtrend was violated (see the downtrend channel ) and the base has been formed (notice the lower volume , on average, in the down days) and now we can project up quite a ways for a rally.

Be prepared for some volatility as the stock can move 10% in the course of three days. Keep position size down. I will build into a position over a period of days and will leave stock to buy in 5% corrections.

Tim West, 5:00PM EST, Monday, July 30, 2012
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timwest,do you bought today?
PBR had a 6% correction, so I bought at 20.33, 19.50 and 19.73. Open the day after the idea. 5% correction at 19.50 and the next day's close at 19.73. The average price is $19.85. Not a bad start with today's action.
varuntomar timwest
Do u think the bad earnings a couple of days back might prevent the upside?
timwest PRO varuntomar
It's important to watch how a stock reacts to news. It isn't the news, per se, that is most important, but the reaction to the news. If a stock can't go down on bad news, then it can give you a sense of confidence that the downside risk is limited. If there are no sellers left to drive down the price, then the price may advance to squeeze out any short sellers who hoped to profit from a price decline on the bad news. PBR has had production and cost issues, so that may limit the stock in the long run. If you had looked at the OIH forecast, which worked out very nicely, then you'll see this stock is a laggard to that idea. Cheers. Tim 4:56PM EST, Tuesday, Aug 14, 2012.
Is this still looking good for a target hit Mr West?
So far, so good. Did you see I put a short sale on XOM late last week? If you have that on as as short against this PBR as a long, then you will have a better position overall. If you have never done a "pairs trade" before, then research it and follow it and learn all about it. It is a great way to remove market-risk, but you add on company-specific risk of course.
All the best, Tim
Amazing call. Where is your bulls eye for this one? :)
Thanks :-) I just clicked on the "submit to bullseye" button
Very impressive.
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