PCAR left an open gap this morning. Appears to be drifting sideways after the January earnings pump.
Might buy in tomorrow after the Fed meeting.
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Gonna be patient and see if it hits support.
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Thought about buying CAT puts this morning and didn't do it, oh well. CAT options have better liquidity and weeklys are available, seems CAT and PCAR move in the same direction.
CAT weekly options would have paid off pretty well today.
Closed my trade. Took my lumps. Could the price go up from here? Sure. But I don't KNOW that, so I got out of the trade.
hungry_hippo
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@BoomerMo, you were talking about buying more when I was saying sell it yesterday, lol. I would be more inclined to buy today, not sell.
This is exactly why I don't buy unless I expect the market to go up the next day, hence the indicators. Plus you need to look at daily and intraday patterns as well. PCAR formed a pennant the past 2 days and broke down yesterday. Hit the pennant target and bounced this morning, but appears to be forming some sort of continutation or reversal pattern today, not sure which.
BoomerMo
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@hungry_hippo, Thanks for your concern. It was a $40 loss, so I'm not concerned about the money. I've been working on micro-trades until I understand the processes better. I bought a tiny position just to shake off the FOMO. The plan was buy in big if the FOMC presser was a big nothing burger. In my opinion, it was, but I didn't have any idea that the markets were so hopeful. Didn't see that crater coming. Then the regional banks started selling off like crazy. I figured, just get out. Let the market reset.
More pissed about the direction of things. I really did think that the markets were going to go up yesterday, today at the latest. Indicators were favorable. The only wildcard was Powell, and it's been a while since he's said something that dumb.
I had no idea that Powell could (or even would) tank the markets so hard with a "I don't see us cutting this year." He's already said similar things before. Hell, the DOT plot shows it. I figured at best he'd say "data-dependent" and leave it at that. Guess I should have sniffed that one out when Powell opened the meeting with "the banking sector is secure and robust". I could have got out at breakeven at that point in the speech. Between that statement and the "I don't see cuts this year", the market's direction was decided.
I'm not sure what's going to happen from here, so I just cut the trade loose instead of doing the "hopefully it can turn around" thing. I've already trapped money doing that type of investing last year. This trade was beginning to give me the same feel as an option trade gone wrong. If you don't have it right at the start, you probably aren't going to get out without a little stinging. At least, that's my level of understanding at this point. Lessons here, lessons there. I'll eventually get it.
hungry_hippo
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@BoomerMo, exactly. I won't get into a trade unless I have some confidence about market direction the next day. It's especially important for options trading, if you trade weekly options, one day can determine if you make or lose money. I've been trading stocks (especially PCAR) the same way for the past couple of years. Setting tight stops without looking at market direction first means you lose money every time. Like I said, I trade in 100k blocks with my retirement account, so that would have been around 2k if I made the same mistake. And as you already know, you can;t just buy stocks and say will eventually it'll go up.... this isn't a bull market, sideways at best
That being said, if I had thought the market would pump AAPL earnings though, I would have bought PCAR this morning.
BoomerMo
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Powell just jolted small-caps with his thoughts that cuts are unlikely this year. PCAR heading down with small caps now it looks like... but the meeting isn't over yet. Will it reach yesterday's low? I might buy more if it does.
hungry_hippo
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@BoomerMo, wait to buy dude. PCAR makes semi trucks, it's not some sort of speculative growth stock.
Also, intraday pennant broke downwards
BoomerMo
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@hungry_hippo, LOL, fair enough. You saying that PCAR will take longer to digest the news than big tech? I'll be honest, I don't know which is more important here. Sounds like they are thinking pause on hikes, but no cuts either. I think that'd be bullish short-term. Granted, I realize that yields may readjust over the next 24 hours, which will force small-caps even lower.
For what it's worth, I was thinking I'd probably wait a day to buy more. I'm guessing you think ES might go oversold again and that's what you're waiting for or are you more concerned from a macro perspective?
hungry_hippo
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@BoomerMo, No, intraday pennant and small caps will give up today's gain which will probably push PCAR below that support.
hungry_hippo
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@BoomerMo, I think there's a high probability that daily indicators need to go oversold on indices as well as PCAR. That is why I keep saying wait.
My 3 hr indicators are for quick (1 -2 day) trades, it's not a buy and hold signal. If I had bought yesterday, I would have sold on that morning pop.
BoomerMo
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@hungry_hippo, I hear what you're saying. And I'll admit, I'm abusing the 3-hour indicators a bit by swing-trading with them. I actually did see that PCAR price had popped a bit this morning and thought about selling out, but my gains would have been minimal because I didn't buy all of it at the low of the day—only 1/2. I decided that the gap-fill is still in play and decided to wait. I know that's not usually what you do.
And sorry, I removed the sentence asking if you thought PCAR would be supported by the recent dip price. I tend to edit my statements too often. That can be awkward for the flow of conversation. I'll try to keep it to a minimum.