Daily MFI went oversold which is very bullish, plus I think ES1! (SPX futures) fills the open gap above.
Not sure if it does it this earnings or July, but I think PCAR hits my $82 target then drifts sideways for a while.
If today wasn't the local double bottom, I'm adding on the drop.
I also revised my wedgie into a parallel channel.
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Note: Old resistance is the new support, and that seems to be holding true for now.
Trade closed manually
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Closed this out for now so I don't have to sit and watch all day.
Expecting the market to dip tomorrow, will watch it and see if I want to get back in because daily RSI did hit oversold.
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Note: I'm bullish on this stock, but I only hold long positions on days when I expect the market to go up. Not sure about direction tomorrow.
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Wish I had held yesterday, lol. I just don;t like to hold any long positions when I expect the market to go down, and every index is red today.
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Gap filled after all, lol. Should have been more confident in this stock.
Looks weak after the gap fill though and I think it takes a dip tomorrow. Will wait to go long again.
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Was hoping for more of a dip, but I figured PCAR would go green wit the market today so bought some while it was red.
Chart pattern shows a possible dip to $71, so I didn;t go all in
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Tempted to sell this since it's underperforming the market, but my other positions are doing OK, so holding only because it's my favorite stock, lol.
I'd have to say, I'd recommend SPY over PCAR right now because SPY futures (ES1!) has a gap above to fill.
Trade closed manually
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Up 1% when ES and NQ are overbought? Taking the easy money, will buy the dip later this week.
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For those of you that don't follow me, I tend to trade off of SPX futures (ES1!). that's how I time the market.
Generally speaking, if you buy PCAR (or any other stock) when ES1! goes oversold then you increase your odds of making money. For the most part PCAR goes up when the market does.
Waiting for at least one of the indices to go oversold before re-entering this trade.
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Wow, this looks ugly. I did post that I sold yesterday morning.
PCAR is moving with small caps, and unfortunately at a faster pace. I may not get back into this because it drops faster than it goes up. I think I'm going in only as a gap play when we get a big gap.
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PCAR is moving with industrial, as I mentioned below, CAT has better options liquidity with weekly options available. Not to mention it doesn't fill gaps like PCAR does. Next time I'm bearish on PCAR I'm buying CAT puts, I usually do GM but that's basically at the bottom already so CAT has more room down.
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I love this stock, but I'd have to see a definitive reversal pattern or an open gap before I get back in.
" if you buy PCAR (or any other stock) when ES1! goes oversold then you increase your odds of making money" ==> You are referring to the daily or 3hr indicators? Also, I believe MFI takes priority over RSI?
hungry_hippo
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@mka246, 3 hr indicator. Yes, MFI is more important, but I look at both.
One thing to keep in mind is that MFI can move opposite of market direction off hours, yet somehow it still works and goes in the same direction during market hours.
BoomerMo
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Industrials taking a powder today, and therefor PCAR. Is it the job openings number? I mean, fewer job openings is bad for everyone. Why are industrials getting hit so hard?
BoomerMo
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Nevermind. You said it below... "overall economy". Fewer jobs just makes investors more uneasy about the overall economy.
hungry_hippo
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@BoomerMo, every time they pump futures on bad job numbers industrials and automotives go straight down off the gap. They are still trading like they normally would instead of the Fed pivot trade. Numbers aside, indicators were overbought, and my usual gameplan is to buy PCAR when ES1! gets oversold.
If anything, industrials are above where they should be considering where automotives are. Usually they trade very similar. I made some decent money on PCAR over the past year but it might be time to move on.
hungry_hippo
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@BoomerMo, speaking of industrials, CAT is a better play for shorting with options because of smaller spread between bid and ask plus there's weekly options and better liquidity. Could've made a lot of money shorting CAT today. Next time I want to short PCAR, I'm buying CAT puts.
BoomerMo
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Nice job "Easy Money". PCAR now down $0.50 on the day. Looks like indicators might be working today. Do you think the oil announcement of cutting production will hit PCAR in a negative way?
hungry_hippo
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@BoomerMo, truck demand is based more on the overall economy than just oil price. Oil price tends to hit recreational stuff like Winnebago (WGO) or Polaris (PII) than trucking. Also PCAR is trading with industrials like CAT more than automotive like GM. I still think it hits $81, but this certainly makes the timing trickier. I can't say it has no effect, but PCAR didn't tank when oil prices spiked because of Russia/Ukraine.
I'm more tempted to buy SPY or QQQ when the indicators drop. Right now both are overbought, so not buying the dip just yet.
hungry_hippo
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@BoomerMo, keep in mind I also bailed out early last week and didn't buy into it until Friday morning, so I missed out on $1 of the rally, but at the same time I timed it almost perfectly to the minute today, so that kinda makes up for it. Right now you gotta trade stocks you are familiar with.
BoomerMo
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Yep, closed the trade yesterday, so it pops today. That's my life. In seriousness, with the bond market adjusting on Mon/Tues and the looming threat of the next SVB/Sig/DB/CS, I just wasn't feeling confident the market sentiment would come back before another shoe would drop. Back to silliness, with my luck, this means the market rallies for a week.