Based on the US equity options Put/Call, most traders are on the wrong side of the boat heading into tomorrow's (quad-witch) opex. Hold on to your hats, folks!
So far that hasn't been the case. I'm more focused on the entire form of the move since the Ides of March (3/15 top)that has already been down trending well before Triple or Quad Witching. If a low has been made today it is inside the bars of 5/25 and 5/26 making a slightly higher low. If that's the case it must not break these lows, and a rally must ensue in short order. Breaking these lows without completion of 5 waves down, will portend greater bearish consequences. The Put/Call Ratio has been high for 3 straight days though yesterday was only moderate, on a 2-3 week period overall the Put/Call ratio hit multi-month lows, In the past couple weeks the SKEW Index hit all-time highs meaning there were record amount of Out of the Money Puts being sold at high premiums, that expectation that of a market collapse is inconsistent with longer term sell off because most Out of the Money Puts expire worthless, and may be a contrarian indicator. At least there should be a reversal in a countertrend rally, from 3/15 to 6/18 there is a potential high to low both occurring in the 3 day mid-month period that often sees highs and lows, as well as the first 3 trading days of the month.
Hedge_Of_The_World
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@pechi123, Thanks for the comment. I appreciate you sharing, my friend! I guess we got our answer. Le't see what happens on Sunday night now that both the 50DMA and ascending trendline support on the S&P has been lost. Bullard spooked markets good and proper, as did Powell I suppose on Wednesday, but he did his best to insist investors ignore the dot plot (Fed members outlook). Perhaps we finally get a 10%+ correction.
amiraras2009
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@Hedge_Of_The_World, So this coming Monday is going to be another bearish day?
Hedge_Of_The_World
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@amiraras2009 A technical bounce today was expected, but I think we’ll see another leg lower shortly and a continuation of the selling. Lots of Fed members speak this week, and the PPT is meeting at the White House to discuss markets. Should be an interesting week of PA to say the least.
EBITDAtiger
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It's going to be a wild day tomorrow, applying an overused term, 'unprecedented"
Hedge_Of_The_World
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@EBITDAtiger totally agree. Time for some fireworks.