PatientContrarian

Another long-term downtrend broken?

Long
PatientContrarian Updated   
BATS:PCTI   PCTEL, Inc
Here is another stock potentially breaking out of a long-term downtrend/basing pattern. I tried to put the trend line where there were the most hits so that it would be more accurate, but that resulted in some false breakouts in the past and, as a result, this could prove to be a false breakout or that the trend line isn't even accurate and there was no breakout. But the potential breakout occurred on strong volume, which is a good sign. Based on the assumption that a long-term downtrend has indeed been broken, I like this stock long-term. I don't like to set price targets, but rather set a stop loss and keep increasing it if a stock continues to rise. If this ends up proving to be a false breakout, or not even a breakout at all as I've stated my trend line might not be good, a break below long-term support of about $4 would be a very bad sign, but also potentially very good at shaking out the last of the weak hands. Think about it, if you had the ability and really wanted to shake out the weak hands, you would manipulate a false breakout here followed by a big shakeout below previous long-term support where you could buy at dirt cheap prices and then take the stock up for the move everyone thought would initially happen.

This is not advice, just a very simple observation of a long-term chart pattern, decide for yourself and if you decide to trade this move, do so at your own risk. I'm a long-term investor, so I like to trade on longer-term moves and therefore and willing to take more risk - it wouldn't bother me if this stock had a shakeout following this potential breakout, but for short-term traders it would probably be too much to risk going through something like that, or their tighter stops would be taken out before the stock really gets going. I'm good with that as it adds long-term strength and more potential movement long-term.

Comment:
Well would you look at that, they did end up taking it down to the $4 level I referenced in my initial post, very briefly but it happened. I'm encouraged by recent price action in this stock as it looks like it's trying to maintain this shakeout on a closing level right near the trend line I initially drew. If this turns out to be the bottom for this stock and if the market in general has already bottomed then maybe the rise can finally get underway. If there is more pain to come in the stock market overall then this stock will probably crash below the $4 level. Time will tell.. still holding.
Comment:
Haven't updated this in a while, it's not looking good. Appears my original trend line is not right. I have updated it here using what looks to be the most recent failure to break out. Looks like more accumulation is in store for the time being and should be able to buy more shares around the $4 level or below.
Comment:
Wow, this thing is going nuts today, I did a double take when I looked at my portfolio. It popped at the end of the day yesterday, looks like it made it above $13 after hours and is holding strong so far around $10. People are saying it's popping on a combination of things - some discord group is allegedly pumping it up, there was also some news regarding another company with the letters PCTI and people are saying that people are mistakenly buying this instead. This stock has the base to support a much further rise but not if it's going up for the wrong reasons. I'm torn on what to do, take the 100% profit I have right now after years of waiting and accumulating on just a one day pop or wait as the base supports a 200% rise in my opinion at the minimum. A deal with a big wireless provided could send this thing soaring even more and there are plenty of fresh short sellers to fuel a big, fast rally as they would cover if it can keep rising. If price can hang on until the end of the month and maintain this breakout of the long-term downtrend, which I have adjusted then the rise may finally be underway. I think I will continue to hold, I think this stock has a lot of potential. If it keeps rising, at some point I will start to use a stop loss but I think it might be just getting started personally.

Comment:
Unfortunately it appears this month's pop was indeed just a "pump and dump". Looks like more waiting is in store. There is long-term support at $4, if it gets there I'll add to my position. I could see them (whoever them is) taking it even lower than that though since it's flat bottom support. If "they" do, I'll just buy more and average down even more. This is about a 20 year base which is crazy, as long as the company doesn't go bankrupt, the foundation is in for a big rise at some point. And if they go bankrupt, oh well, won't break the bank for me as I manage a diversified portfolio.

Comment:
(chart updated below) Hoping 50-mo. EMA provides support and eventually this breaks through the 200-mo. EMA which is running right along my updated trend line. Continuing to reinvest dividends in the time being.

Comment:
This one isn't looking good (I also don't understand why it's down so much today). Anyway, now I'm hoping price finds support at the uptrend line, otherwise it looks like it wants to go back down to $4 and, if it gets there, I expect it to break even lower since it has tested $4 several times over the past decade+. In the meantime I will continue to reinvest dividends at these lower prices and plan on buying even more shares if it does end up breaking below $4, might snag some at $4 also in case the long-term support holds again.

Comment:
This one has really gone into the bargain basement. At the same time not much to get excited about either... I may buy more and average down if it drops a bit further.

Comment:
In hindsight I guess I should have sold out on that pop early in 2021 that turned out to be either a "pump and dump" or people were confused that this stock was a different stock that was popping off.
Comment:
Last time that I commented on this I said that I should have sold in hindsight, that's just knowing that price has broken down since then. This long-term chart pattern warrants more of a rise than just a one month pump and dump so I'm glad I held, it just didn't work out.. yet. Hoping that patience pays off eventually..
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