PG: Final Strategy, Bought CALLS!

🔎 Chart Observations

Price: $157.04 (-1.19% on the day).

Fib Levels:

Key resistance zones at 159.77 (Fib 0.886) and 163.65–167.86 (Fib extensions).

Strong support zones at 155.35 (local low) and 150.20 (weekly low).

Trend: Consolidating after a sharp rebound (yellow candles indicate indecision/possible continuation setup).

Volume: Elevated compared to July, suggesting institutional positioning.

Regression Channel + Earnings (ER): Your annotation points out alignment around $165–168 into earnings, suggesting bullish bias.

📈 Options Play Idea (Bullish Tilt)
Primary Play: Bull Call Spread (moderate bullish)

Buy: $160 Oct 18 Call

Sell: $165 Oct 18 Call

Rationale: Cheapens cost, targets regression + ER move, defined risk.

Max Profit: Captured if PG closes ≥ $165 at expiration.

Alternative Play: Call Debit Spread + Earnings Lottery

Buy: $160 Call (Oct 18 or Nov 15 expiry)

Sell: $170 Call (same expiry)

Thesis: Stock pushes into $165–$170 zone on ER momentum.

Hedge / Neutral Play: Iron Condor (if expecting chop until ER)

Sell: $165 Call + Buy $170 Call

Sell: $150 Put + Buy $145 Put

Rationale: Play the range if PG stalls under $165 but holds above $150.

🧮 Probabilistic Outlook (next 6–8 weeks)

Bullish Continuation (55%): Grind higher into $165–168.

Range-bound (30%): Bounce between $155–161 until earnings clarity.

Bearish Pullback (15%): Drop to retest $150 demand zone.

👉 Best risk/reward: The $160/$165 Bull Call Spread (Oct 18) — aligned with your regression + ER zone.