It’s almost an Elliot wave but since that relies on impulse and there is no big news about platinum that would cause a frenzy, this prediction is incorrect as you can see by the way the stock price has not formed the fifth peak and broke the support line.
schabacker_idol
⋅
@tomchristian96, Correct, it might not be a perfect elliot wave since price has fallen below the highest price in the first wave now, as you say. Although, I think you are wrong in your statement that there could be no major fundamental event causing the explosive price increase as drawn in the fifth wave. I can see multiple fundamental factors that would cause the price of platinum to increase. Inflation expectation, demand increasing due to supply shortages and government policies enforcing electrification are some examples of what could cause that major move in price. It will be very interesting to follow what will happen with the price in the upcoming days.
tomchristian96
⋅
@schabacker_idol, while all of those events could cause movement, they wouldn’t necessarily cause an Elliott wave. Elliot waves are impulse. Meaning, they are fueled by news, social media, hype, FOMO etc. during the hype phase, people who aren’t experienced traders get FOMO and buy. Then when the flagpole has been created, professionals begin to sell, Noobs see this selling happening and freak out and sell but usually it’s too late, the traded stock or entity is already going up again. That’s how Elliot waves work. They’re extremely unlikely in situations where the news, or social platform etc. isn’t talking about the stock of interest. Especially with a precious metal like gold, silver or platinum in this case. These items are physical and can be held. They’re not easily sold on impulse. I like your chart though. It is a pattern you see the beginnings of and if this weren’t a precious metal and if there were more people talking about platinum in unusual circles, I might agree with you.
schabacker_idol
⋅
@tomchristian96, As a technical trader I don't believe much in fundamentals, but precious metals is one area where I find the fundamentals very interesting. In history there are times when certain "physical asset classes" has had extremely impulsive price increases (precious metals included).
Elliot waves are not a pattern you only find in the FOMO stocks. Impulsive patterns can be found in all asset classes, some more often and others more seldom. Some are perfect elliot waves and some patterns just look like elliot waves. Look at what's happening in lumber now, that's a good example of a "physical asset class" that's volatile and impulsive. Or look at the previous weekly impulsive pattern here in Gold that resembles an elliot wave a lot (tradingview.com/x/oEhUlmST/).
"They’re not easily sold on impulse." <-- Have you never heard about the futures market? :) Look at what happened to gold the previous weekend with all the contracts being dumped.