For this exercise we are going to use PLNCZK as an example and allow a live swing to be setup. The banquet is over for bulls in this case after sellers capped the highs on three separate occasions each time driving the price out. Next came the spike down in thin markets, algos on the sell side helping itself to clean the board. But then came this breakdown yesterday and the retrace banquet was over. The technical damage now ruefully done, with nothing left to defend for bulls as strong seasonal factors enter into play for CZK.
The correct method on this board is to punish buyers for losing the break and sweeping the lows at 5.825. All is going according to play; the ladder can easily be cleared. The advance lower is an illustration of how to spot a breakdown miles ahead of the crowd.
As soon as bulls shamefully abandon the highs in yellow, their fellow comrades begin to lose confidence. Yes, it is true as in life the same case with markets....whenever a retailer gets "delusions of grandeur", they then forget all about their fellow comrades and go overboard.
Smart money is spotting the change in direction, opening fire each time and pinging the price back down. Sellers now have the task of marching towards the recent lows while keeping an eye on any further rallies to add on pullbacks. This breakdown can hardly be more obvious as sellers have the immunity to attack by being "protected" from the 5.968x, 5.989x and 6.00x highs.
Good luck all those on the sell side here over the coming sessions, a well developed swing in play and highly recommend tracking if not trading it with live accounts.
Hope it helps.
Trade active
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One way traffic...
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...a flawless move for PLNCZK
Trade closed: target reached
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All targets cleared here. Well done sellers. Updates coming tomorrow.
But isn't the swing from bottom-up and subsequent correction sign of buyers loading up to drive price UP?
And now, everytime price retraces lower, we should watch for lower degree impuls up followed by retrace and then it's ready to try go long again..
ridethepig
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Well @ondrej.holubek the answer to your question comes from the details of what happened after price slipped in the thin liquidity; notice how bids failed to get back above the prior highs. Since then market has been making lower lows and lower highs, or the broader sense of a downtrend.
ridethepig
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On the fundamental side, CZK has strong seasonality push-up factors entering into play while the macro remains solid uptrend. On the PLN side, notably hedges in PLN are still there but these are only to offset the losses from Swiss mortgages. NBP sidelined and dovish, no reason to get long PLN at these levels.
And now, everytime price retraces lower, we should watch for lower degree impuls up followed by retrace and then it's ready to try go long again..