At a minimum I'm expecting a short-term bounce off the .618 fib. (As I write this it looks like this is happening.)
Based on the wave structure, I see the strong possibility for this to be a potential wave 2 bottom zone. Shares have not traded for a long period of time on the open market and there is less data and wave structure to work with. Assuming the triangle is a a wave 4 and the current all time high marks the top of a wave 5, then 3 waves down to the .618 in the territory of the previous 4th wave is a hot spot for finding support and a potential bottom. Timing nicely is RSI near breaching the oversold territory and MACD showing waning downside momentum.
Does previous C level in previous wave provide any support (you could be saying that as support at .618)?
Kappy
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@HHSPN, I think you're correct. To be honest I overlooked that. What I like about it is that it works well in an alternate count I've worked on which considers that previous c as a final move of a truncated a-b-c correction. This make wave (i) longer but otherwise the count implications remain the same; it's just no longer a triangle 4th wave.
HHSPN
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@Kappy, it touched your estimate at .618 to the dot @22.70, it was a strong support. Would you wait till macd blue cross over red for confirmation to buy?
@HHSPN, I see what you're seeing on BE. Thanks for the tip. The current decline lacks a clear 3 wave pattern so I'm incline to think a bounce will be a B wave followed with another pullback.
Kappy
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@HHSPN, I took a long position when I published confident that the .618 would support a bounce. I think it comes down to your own trading style/preference. Obviously, waiting for confirmation is the more conservative approach but some upside is given up too. I expect to hold for a couple months which makes timing the perfect entry less important.