2025 Palantir Q4 Thesis

Palantir is demonstrating a break in Market structure as shown over the last few weeks.

Causes:

1. Dollar Strength is causing the devaluation of All Assets.
2. Fear of an economic crisis are causing investors to take a risk off approach on Speculative assets which will create a particularly noticeable change in trend on high volatility/volume assets.
3. Several weeks of consistent short pressure
4. An abnormally high PE ratio

Hypothesis:
Palantir will range (136-207) until the next earnings call unless major news continues to catalyze growth. Further bullish movement will be dependent on Palantir continuing to grow revenue while maintaining an increased profitability while also increasing revenue. The expectation is that the company will expand so positive earnings will not immediately yield faster growth until the company better justifies its valuation.

Plan
Maintain a small qty of positions options between 136 and 153. Invalidate the plan if a break occurs below 136 on the weekly timeframe.

Duration:
2 Week contracts
Conditions:
Look to sell before Week 2
Sell at or above 153
1 Month Contracts:
Conditions:
Look to sell before Week 2
Sell at or above 153