You know I've had to hold myself back from posting just to prevent myself from getting too emotionally set on seeing a bear market within the next few months. That being one reason, & 2nd reason being to the tendency to stay away from a trade that isn't a clear top or a clear bottom with a direction clear enough for me to take a high or even semi-high risk on. Since we're in such a retaliatory bull market, the only post I've made calling for a ticker going into bear market (with high confidence) is GS. I've done my own research, & if you wana take my word for it - you'll stay FAR the fuck away from financials (DFS, JPM, C, PFG, BMA, COF, GGAL, GS especially). To keep this on topic - current free cash flow / equity is in the same trench it's been in only in 2001 & 2009. On a chart, it's hovering a few basis points above those extremes. But to put that more into perspective, if you think TSLA burns through cash, PNW has an even lower Altman-Z score (.93 vs 1.32). The only difference is 1 of them has dividend obligations.
Trade active
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Typically I would've stopped out @ this point - but I typically would've kept more of a loose stop had I thought the trend was even slightly bullish. Hella good opportunity to double down. Should see some consolidation before a breakdown, but I think this is @ or around the highest point price action is gonna make.
WELL I MIGHT AS WELL TAKE THE L FAIR AND SQUARE NOW
UnknownUnicorn3450309
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What option strategy do you suggest on this one?
DerekD_
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@TheCaveman, I'm definitely not the best person to ask, just because I rely pretty heavily on TA & would rather only take a trade I have high confidence on & don't mind sitting on a red trade or even a mildly green PL until it gets near my original target. Nonetheless, if I'm wrong - I just eat the loss. But volatility is @ it's lowest IV% rank, & looking @ the chain you can tell front month is pretty illiquid. I have a note for Sept. 20th that price should start to see bigger moves. I really can't convince myself to see a move above $80.50 let alone $81 (unless I'm ultimately just wrong) so buying calls to hedge a short position might not be worth while. But ultimately, I'd wait until around the Sept 18-20th to check back on October puts & hedge w/ near TM or OTM calls if volatility is still low. It'd definitely 100% beneficial to check out DXY & oil & do your own analysis on. If you think DXY is bullish (I don't) - you'd be short oil, & long this stock. If you think Oil is bullish, you'd be short DXY & this stock. Oil prices have been real suppressed for a while, so I don't think it'll be much longer until we see Gold & other metals start to follow the footsteps of how oil has surged this year. As well as the dollar getting weaker, which increases costs for electric companies, which reduces profit. I'm going on a tangent but, yeah. lol
UnknownUnicorn3450309
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@DerekD_, Thanks for the nice write up. I would wait before this play.