POWR - Trying It's Best to Break Out Above Heavy Resistance!!
OK so after a short break spending some quality time with the wife and the little one (as well as working on my motorbike at nights) – I am back!
Let’s have a look at POWR vs BTC on the one hour log chart to see what we find!
POWR finally broke out of its three month down trend channel (dashed black line) around the 11th of April and has since been trading within a smaller ascending (uptrend) channel. At the moment we find ourselves at a critical point in our journey! As you can see we have some strong resistance above us in the red dashed line and although we have tried and tried to break to the upside of it over the past week; we have ultimately failed! Unless we break out by today's close with supporting volume, then we are likely going down. How far down? Well let’s take a look at our moving averages to see if they can give us a possible scenario…
We had a recent bullish crossover of the short term moving average (12 EMA) over the longer term moving average (26 EMA) on 14/04/2018; and since then we have been riding the support offered by the 12 EMA. Now with the heavy resistance looming directly above us, the support is barely holding. If we don’t break out by today’s close, then it is likely we will fall to test the support provided by the 26 EMA in Pink. If this doesn’t hold, then we next have the 50 EMA represented by the green dashed support line. Therefore, in terms of where we will drop to; I think the green dashed line is as far as it will go. Let’s take a look at our other technical indicators to see if they support this theory.
Aroon Up is below 50, whereas Aroon Down is around 7. At the moment this indicates that neither bulls nor bears have the edge – this can still go either way! If the Aroon Down is to increase above 50 and Aroon Up remains below 50, then bears definitely have the edge. Given neither bulls nor bears currently have an edge, then there would not be a lot of strength to the drop below the uptrend channel if this occurs. On the flip side however, if we do break out above the heavy resistance and we do not have the supporting volume required; then again we there will not be a lot of strength to the break out, and we will probably not find support above the red dashed resistance line (effectively this will be a false breakout).
RSI is at 58 and the MACD also have no momentum currently, further supporting the view that a drop at this stage is likely to take us to the next level of support at the 26 EMA; whereas a breakout above the resistance will be a false break out. Like I mentioned earlier however, if we do drop and both the 26 EMA fails and then the 50 EMA green dashed line also fails - then we are dropping further!
Volume gives me a positive indication that all the buyers over the last week are not going to want to sell so soon. A drop out of the uptrend channel is not going to scare them enough in to selling, although it may shake out a few loose hands. This again, supports the notion of a drop only as far as the 26 EMA or green dashed support line representing the 50 EMA before a bounce.
At the moment, this is a no trade zone for me. In order for me to go long, I would need to see a break above the red heavy resistance dashed line (with the all-important supporting volume!) which would likely take us all the way up to the 61.8% Fib where we are met with our next level of resistance. I will be looking for this break and once confirmed, going long.
Cheers
Let’s have a look at POWR vs BTC on the one hour log chart to see what we find!
POWR finally broke out of its three month down trend channel (dashed black line) around the 11th of April and has since been trading within a smaller ascending (uptrend) channel. At the moment we find ourselves at a critical point in our journey! As you can see we have some strong resistance above us in the red dashed line and although we have tried and tried to break to the upside of it over the past week; we have ultimately failed! Unless we break out by today's close with supporting volume, then we are likely going down. How far down? Well let’s take a look at our moving averages to see if they can give us a possible scenario…
We had a recent bullish crossover of the short term moving average (12 EMA) over the longer term moving average (26 EMA) on 14/04/2018; and since then we have been riding the support offered by the 12 EMA. Now with the heavy resistance looming directly above us, the support is barely holding. If we don’t break out by today’s close, then it is likely we will fall to test the support provided by the 26 EMA in Pink. If this doesn’t hold, then we next have the 50 EMA represented by the green dashed support line. Therefore, in terms of where we will drop to; I think the green dashed line is as far as it will go. Let’s take a look at our other technical indicators to see if they support this theory.
Aroon Up is below 50, whereas Aroon Down is around 7. At the moment this indicates that neither bulls nor bears have the edge – this can still go either way! If the Aroon Down is to increase above 50 and Aroon Up remains below 50, then bears definitely have the edge. Given neither bulls nor bears currently have an edge, then there would not be a lot of strength to the drop below the uptrend channel if this occurs. On the flip side however, if we do break out above the heavy resistance and we do not have the supporting volume required; then again we there will not be a lot of strength to the break out, and we will probably not find support above the red dashed resistance line (effectively this will be a false breakout).
RSI is at 58 and the MACD also have no momentum currently, further supporting the view that a drop at this stage is likely to take us to the next level of support at the 26 EMA; whereas a breakout above the resistance will be a false break out. Like I mentioned earlier however, if we do drop and both the 26 EMA fails and then the 50 EMA green dashed line also fails - then we are dropping further!
Volume gives me a positive indication that all the buyers over the last week are not going to want to sell so soon. A drop out of the uptrend channel is not going to scare them enough in to selling, although it may shake out a few loose hands. This again, supports the notion of a drop only as far as the 26 EMA or green dashed support line representing the 50 EMA before a bounce.
At the moment, this is a no trade zone for me. In order for me to go long, I would need to see a break above the red heavy resistance dashed line (with the all-important supporting volume!) which would likely take us all the way up to the 61.8% Fib where we are met with our next level of resistance. I will be looking for this break and once confirmed, going long.
Cheers