8791877 = Shares as of 31st December + New sales to BCPE @ initial book value of 10.12 + (443k shares @ 22.56) = 10.832665237 new book value + approx 4230000 of shares and warrants sales approx near @33.5 = approx 18.84$ / share + 5M in cash payment = 19.22$ / share
Total Shares = 13021877
Anticipated quarterly loss between 2 to 3$ per share
264M$ on milestone achievements for development, regulatory and commercialization (subject to milestone achievements)
Let's say milestones achievements takes between 6 mos to 2 years as follows: 1) 6 months scenario - development = loss of approx 4-6$ per share = +88M for development milestone achievement = -5$ loss + 19.22 + (FWB:88M if milestone is achieved) = 20.597$ with milestone = 14.22$ without milestone
2) 1 year scenario - development+regulatory = loss of approx 8-12$ per share = +132M for development+regulatory milestones achievement = -10$ loss + 19.22 + (132M if both milestones are achieved) + (or FWB:88M if only one milestone is achieved) = 9.22$ without any milestone = 15.97$ with one milestone = 19.35$ with both milestones
3) 2 years scenario - dev+reg+commercialization = loss of approx 16-24$ per share = +264M for development + regulatory + commercialization milestones achievement = -20$ loss + 19.22 + (264M with 3 milestones) + (or 132M with two milestones) + (or FWB:88M with one milestone) = -0.78$ with no milestones = $5.97 with one milestone = $9.35 with two milestones = $19.49 with all 3 milestones
These calculations assume there's no other additional securities sale than above.
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Given short term purchases at 35.5/share in total of 150M (recurring dilution until finished) and current shares outstanding, short term book value would be 19.22$ / share. Plus, as achievement of milestones is uncertain. Although, cash burn is certain. Considering imminent dilution to upto 19.22$ / share uncertainties on any milestones, imminent recurring cash-burn, and debt, the stock is trading at a significant premium. Hence, a short tag!
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Today's rally, followed by sudden retracement from 45 to 40.7 indicates almost confirmation of a Double Top for PRAX