Well, just like Bitcoin, even Ethereum made sharp and impulsive five-wave rally at the end of December in 2018. And such sharp legs usually indicate a reversal, at least for a bigger correction of a higher degree! So, after that impulsive leg A/1, ETHUSD dropped into a wave B/2 correction, which we see it as a big expanded(irregular) flat pattern! Flat corrections are made by three legs into wave "a", three legs into a wave "b" and motive wave "c" should be completed by five waves. And, as you can see, Ethereum made a clear 3-3-5 expanded flat correction back to ideal 61,8% - 78,6% Fibonacci retracement and 100 support area!
That said, we believe that Ethereum can be ending a big a-b-c expanded flat correction here in wave B/2, from where we should see a bounce back to highs for a wave C/3. So, if ETH turns sharply back above 120 region, then we may start considering bullish scenarios. However, ETHUSD may go even more complex here, so as long as it's moving above 80 invalidation area, we will remain bullish!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
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UPDATE: No big changes, just a small spike down to 100 psychological support level. The most important is that we can see a spike out of a triangle, which suggests the final leg before a reversal. Carefully here, this is the stage when everyone turns bearish!
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UPDATE: As expected! Just like BTC, even ETH made a perfect bounce after a completed expanded flat correction! So, even ETH can be on the way back to highs for wave C/3, which should be made by five waves!
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UPDATE: As expected, just like BTC, even Ethereum made a clear five-wave rise into 165 area away from wave B/2, so seems like even ETH can see more upside within wave C/3. But, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows, so even ETH may slow down in (a)-(b)-(c) correction, where ideal support would be around 61,8% - 78,6% Fibonacci retracement and 125-115 area! Anyway, in case if goes more complex, we remain bullish as long as it's trading above 100 invalidation area!
@hardboiled, if the wave extends to C/3, wave comes in 5 waves?
jurepetrovic
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I am wondering what is a possibility we retest $80 before turning bullish, thus forming part of double bottom? Thanks,
Jure
johnle0394
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This is what I see.
eenmakkie
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Can you count these waves differently ?
I can’t find a count that suggest the 5th wave is already finished.
Looking forward to your wave count on ADA
hardboiled
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Nice analysis! can you share how to set the 180 USD target?
ew-forecast
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@hardboiled, Thank you. Equality measurement of waves A=C. It's actually just a minimum expectation target for wave C in case if we are in A-B-C correction, where wave C is usually the same size as wave A. But if we are in wave 3, then it may go even higher.
@ew-forecast, Yes, if it's bullish (12345) wave 3 could reach $228 (1.618 Fib extension), but if it's bearish (acb) c should only reach $180 (1.0 Fib extension). Either way the bear and bull counts are bullish to $180! Thanks ew-forcast for explaining this to me below.
Moon_Dream
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@hardboiled, Its a Fib extension to top of wave three using anchors of $81, $102 and $160.