Party City - Stop, He's Already Dead!

Party City has become a perfect example of going quietly into the night. Despite the immense amount of trouble the company is in, and their constant and predictable death spiral, the lack of volume goes to show that the market hasn't noticed Party City on death's doorstep.

- Helium supplies being limited means that medical tech companies receive first dibs, leaving retailers like Party City scrambling to find a way to stay afloat (pun intended).

- Financial stress from the retail apocalypse and having Amazon as a competitor left the company far too weak to incur a financial trip-up such as the helium shortage.

- Short interest of 39% made stock buyback attempts laughable and gave little leeway against the consistent downward spiral.

- Irregular price boosts leave short sellers with plenty of opportunity to swing trade, with just enough volume on the options chain to make a consistent profit.

- Long term bears will flourish on the upcoming earnings report in November, which will only further reiterate what the market has seemed to ignore among trade war fears and index volatility trades.

Current price? $5.00 a share. My personal price target? $2.00 by Halloween.
Nov 09
Comment: I was spot on. They brutally missed earnings and fell to just under $2.50 a share. Made a 170% return on the puts I was holding since I made this post.


Damn, this call was spot on. Great job man.
Meowstro Theinvertedtrader
@Theinvertedtrader, thanks man! I was off by a month but otherwise was spot on. I knew they couldn't hide it forever!
@Meowstro, yes I hope you made money on that dump move. I placed a long at $2.00 for a nice +15% day trade. But good job with your call. You've earned a follower in me!
hsiu4425 Theinvertedtrader
@Theinvertedtrader, I also got in ~$2 , wonder was that consider as a "dead cat bounce" scenario ? Im a short, planning to sell @~$3.2-$4
@hsiu4425, I played it as a dead cat bounce. The price could very well move up further. But I personally didnt want to find out so I exited with my 15% profit for a short term trade. If you're looking for further profit just keep a stop under your entry for breakeven. (Not financial advice ofcourse)
+1 Reply
One00days Theinvertedtrader
@Theinvertedtrader, Any plays left from the outside (don't own any)?
@One00days, besides buying into strength at the break of $2.50 I would hold off.
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