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HK_L61
Jul 23, 2021 11:58 AM

Personal Savings Rate - Consumer Spending to Decline Short

Personal Saving RateFRED

Description

As the Pandemic progressed, Consumers began to spending on
Durable Goods, Home Improvement, Electronics and a host of
additional Products to improve their nesting conditions.

This dynamic applied to Americans who remained employed
through "Stay at Home" Measures.

Lower Income Consumers paid down Debt and began Investing
via WeBull, CoinBase and Robin Hood. Online gambling began to
increase markedly.

Rents were abated through moratoriums on Real Estate.

Stimulus measures provided Income substitution effects, why
work when you are assure $600 per week for one year.

Demand was brought forward for a number of Sectors.

It is now declining.

Consumers purchased new Computers, Phones, Tablets and
peripherals.

White goods and Construction Materials were extremely strong
for 16 months.

Demand has been sated, the Economy has been contracting for
a number of months.

On sector Watch:

XLE
XLU
XLK
XLB
XLP
XLY
XLI
XLC
XLV
XLF
XLRE

Breadth should be closely monitored in each of these Sectors
as it is in decline once again.

Comments
Medicine18
im curious how they calculate savings rate... do they mean rate of change, percentage of savings... you know that's a huge difference
HK_L61
@Medicine18, It is a very simple metric - Disposable Income after expenses and Taxes, calculated every month.

It has declined from ~27% to less than 9% during the trailing 4 months.

@ Present 5% appears to be giving way as a great many Programs for Government Dependents run out.

Bound to happen as we approach the July 31st closure with many States pushing back until August - October.

The net result is always the same, take away the Stimulus and the Saving Rate will decline quickly.

California is already placing UBI into the Mix, many there assume they will receive 2K-3K/Month.

It will be nowhere near that amount - 500/Month has always been their target for Universal Basic Income.

Unless you reside in Slab City, it's not going to provide much of an impact on Economic Activity as it will
be a large Net Reduction in support.
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