We've just opened a LONG #PYPL (PayPal Holdings) position using 2.50% of our equity as we believe that the current post-earnings sell-off is quite overdone at these levels.
The stock is down over 58% from its all-time highs of $310 that it reached mid-summer last year. Our view is that while there are definitely issues related to the future growth trajectory of the company that investors are rightfully worried about, the current price action is pricing in the worst possible scenario for the company moving forward, which in our opinion has a very low probability of actually materializing. Furthermore, the weak forward guidance and the severely lowered investor expectations will make it that much easier for the company to beat its own forecasts in the coming months, considering its leadership position in its sector, thus surprising the street positively. This will then cause a chain reaction of positive analyst upgrades and price target revisions. Yes, this whole process might take some time to materialize, but if you are looking for a solid growth stock with a remarkable long-term potential to double your money, then #PYPL is a screaming buy anywhere around the $125-130 range.
There is no question about the fact that the miss on the bottom line (EPS) in the most recent earnings report together with the poor forward guidance that the management gave on the earnings call after have been the major drivers for the vicious sell-off that we are seeing today.
For 2022, management expects net revenue to increase about 15% to 17% (19% to 21% ex-eBay), and that’s below the roughly 18% analysts were forecasting. The earnings outlook wasn’t any better, with management forecasting adjusted earnings of $4.60 to $4.75, well below analyst estimates of $5.21.
On the new users front, PayPal expects to add about 15 million to 20 million net new active accounts this year, and analysts were forecasting growth of about 55 million. This was definitely one of the most disappointing components of the report.
However, we believe that the down-beat forward guidance given by the company is hugely blown out of proportions and it seems that investors have been very quick to forget that #PYPL is the leader in the digital payments space and could technically be considered as the largest digital bank in the world with over 300 million clients. Our analysis shows that the eBay transition that the company has been going through has definitely weighted on its financial performance. However, we are in the final stages of it and it will be over and done with by the second half of the year.
What investors need to focus on is the fact that the company’s growth rates excluding eBay have remained above 20%. In addition to that the #AMZN (Amazon) partnership with Venmo hasn’t even started yet, and PayPal is free to explore many new partnerships now that it is no longer constrained by its relationship with #EBAY (eBay) . Also, operating expenditure growth is also expected to moderate down the road, allowing management to flex the leverage in the business model and help expand margins.
Apart from adding the stock to our long-term corporate investment portfolio here, we've also opened few long-term CALL options on $PYPL, which we expect to substantially boost our portfolio returns in 2022.
Follow and copy us for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance.
Sincerely,
@DowExperts
The stock is down over 58% from its all-time highs of $310 that it reached mid-summer last year. Our view is that while there are definitely issues related to the future growth trajectory of the company that investors are rightfully worried about, the current price action is pricing in the worst possible scenario for the company moving forward, which in our opinion has a very low probability of actually materializing. Furthermore, the weak forward guidance and the severely lowered investor expectations will make it that much easier for the company to beat its own forecasts in the coming months, considering its leadership position in its sector, thus surprising the street positively. This will then cause a chain reaction of positive analyst upgrades and price target revisions. Yes, this whole process might take some time to materialize, but if you are looking for a solid growth stock with a remarkable long-term potential to double your money, then #PYPL is a screaming buy anywhere around the $125-130 range.
There is no question about the fact that the miss on the bottom line (EPS) in the most recent earnings report together with the poor forward guidance that the management gave on the earnings call after have been the major drivers for the vicious sell-off that we are seeing today.
For 2022, management expects net revenue to increase about 15% to 17% (19% to 21% ex-eBay), and that’s below the roughly 18% analysts were forecasting. The earnings outlook wasn’t any better, with management forecasting adjusted earnings of $4.60 to $4.75, well below analyst estimates of $5.21.
On the new users front, PayPal expects to add about 15 million to 20 million net new active accounts this year, and analysts were forecasting growth of about 55 million. This was definitely one of the most disappointing components of the report.
However, we believe that the down-beat forward guidance given by the company is hugely blown out of proportions and it seems that investors have been very quick to forget that #PYPL is the leader in the digital payments space and could technically be considered as the largest digital bank in the world with over 300 million clients. Our analysis shows that the eBay transition that the company has been going through has definitely weighted on its financial performance. However, we are in the final stages of it and it will be over and done with by the second half of the year.
What investors need to focus on is the fact that the company’s growth rates excluding eBay have remained above 20%. In addition to that the #AMZN (Amazon) partnership with Venmo hasn’t even started yet, and PayPal is free to explore many new partnerships now that it is no longer constrained by its relationship with #EBAY (eBay) . Also, operating expenditure growth is also expected to moderate down the road, allowing management to flex the leverage in the business model and help expand margins.
Apart from adding the stock to our long-term corporate investment portfolio here, we've also opened few long-term CALL options on $PYPL, which we expect to substantially boost our portfolio returns in 2022.
Follow and copy us for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance.
Sincerely,
@DowExperts