Qualcomm overall is a solid company and usually performs bullish in the longer holding time frame..
BUT....
I have seem to come across some shorter to mid time frame bearishness.
First I' noticed QCOM forming a Head & Shoulders with weak looking shoulders that decline from the L.shoulder over to the R.shoulder. A gap also occurred from the L.shoulder over to the R.Shoulder within the same price region showing weakness here.
On Balance Volume [OBV] shows that there are low exchanges of hands and could be signaling weak buying power and a sell off to come. OBV to price also shows a Bearish Divergence.
Last but not least, we seem to be in the process of forming a descending triangle (iHVF) with flat bottoms and that is low slung.
Only sign of slight bullishness would be in the weekly time frame in which QCMON is bouncing within a channel that we seem to be within the bottom region of. QCOM has exited this channel before but usually tends to be extremely volatile when done so. Could this be a sign of another series of hyper volatility and a hint of the temporary health of the overall market?
QCMON to see around $48 soon and possibly even mid $30's within the year
Trade closed: target reached
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Target reached and trade closed for a nice profit before a massive bull run has occurred in this trade
I'm working on a chart right now that shows the same thing... decided to research charts and found yours is very similar. $42, $32, $25 targets if this does go tits up
KennySniper
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@warrenbudget, which method are you trading with for this ?
warrenbudget
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@KennySniper, I notice we're in a descending triangle and right up against the 20 year support trend. Referencing major indices, I think we are just about done with this bear market rally (possibly the A of an ABC) and are gonna head lower. If we do head lower, this doesnt leave much room for QCOM to drop without breakiing the 20 yr support. Assuming we break it, I looked at the volume profile and found rough estimates ($42, 32, 25 marks). I took a fib retracement from $49 to $25 and those numbers in between land spot onto fib levels (this may be a circular argument if u understand the fibonacci sequence...) Additionally, some fundamental analysis tells me QCOM is not looking promising.... China is wrecking them and quite a few people are getting laid off.
warrenbudget
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@KennySniper This is just a scenario btw. I've never really traded QCOM, but if we do pop under $49, its not looking good based on the long term trend. I picked up some $30-40 puts for the fuck of it. good luck
KennySniper
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@warrenbudget, Nice analysis. Yes I am familiar with the Fibb sequence and use it often in my trading method. Didn't bother looking at the MA for QCOM but did look at the MA for SPY and DOW and the 200MA and 300MA seems to be hovering right above current price levels. Did you mean that you think we are done with this **Bull market rally or did you mean bear? Yeah I recently got out of my short position and liqudated showing we bounced around key level of significance that leads back to the year 2001...it could go lower but I wanted to lock in some profits