TALK ABOUT A DETOUR...WE ARE RIGHT BACK TO OUR MODEL'S PREDICTION MONDAY OF 282.88 MINIMUM TARGET (ONLY A $-7.00 DETOUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON)!
INTERESTING STAT: LAST 750 WEEKS = (SINCE 2006) QQQ'S THURSDAY OPEN > WEDNESDAY HIGH 165 TIMES (22%) 82/165 FRIDAY HIGH WEEK (50% 64/165 THURSDAY HIGH WEEK (39%)
SO THE QUESTION...DO WE SELL OUR CALLS TODAY, OR DO WE HOLD THEM INTO FRIDAY?
WE CURRENTLY HOLD 277 OCT 9TH CALLS AT $2.78 AVG. (SOLD 1/2 YESTERDAY @$4.17=50% ROI)
WE WILL BUY 280 CALLS TODAY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS: 1. FIRST 30 MINUTE LOW DOES NOT BREAK 2. OR IT BREAKS AND WE WAIT AND SEE IF QQQ'S HOLD ABOVE WEDNESDAY'S CLOSE (279.92)
JUST 1 WEEK AGO (LAST THURSDAY) WE WERE IN CALLS, AND WE HAD A PROTECTIVE STOP IN PLACE THAT WAS FILLED. WE WERE DISAPPOINTED BECAUSE LAST THURSDAY'S CLOSE WAS ABOVE WHERE WE FILLED. REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED LAST THURSDAY NIGHT? TRUMP ANNOUNCED HE HAD CONTRACTED COVID-19 AROUND MIDNIGHT. TO SAY THE LEAST WE WERE HAPPY TO BE FLAT GOING INTO THAT FRIDAY OPEN.
IF YOU WERE FOLLOWING US LAST WEEK YOU KNOW WE MADE 4 TRADES (100%, 100%, 93%, AND 10%) THE 10% ROI WAS OUR ONLY STOP FILL LAST THURSDAY.
SO BACK TO THE ORIGINAL QUESTION...DO WE HOLD CALLS OVERNIGHT OR DO WE SELL THEM? THE ANSWER IS "YES"! YESTERDAY WE SOLD 1/2 OUR POSITION AT 50% ROI AND HELD THE OTHER 1/2 OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL DO EXACTLY THE SAME TODAY AND SELL 1/2 OUR POSITION AT 100% ROI AND WILL HOLD REMAINING POSITION OVERNIGHT AS LONG AS THE QQQ'S CLOSE ABOVE 281.50 (75 CENTS > WEDNESDAY HIGH).
IT IS THE NEW NORMAL ENVIRONMENT AND ALWAYS HAVE A PROTECTIVE STOP IN PLACE. OUR STOP WAS HIT TUESDAY, AND WE WERE ABLE TO RE-ENTER A NEW POSITION EVEN STRONGER!
Trade active
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30 MINUTE LOW BROKE AND THERE IS STILL A CLOSING GAP FROM WEDNESDAY.
CONSERVATIVE BUY=WAIT FOR VWAP BREAK AND BUY INTO NEXT LOW
AGGRESSIVE BUY= BUY NEXT LOW WITHOUT VWAP BREAK FIRST, BUT DO NOT HOLD POSITION IF 280.32 LOW BREAKS AND IS ACCEPTED.
TARGET IS STILL MINIMUM 282.88 BY END OF THIS WEEK.
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WE BOUGHT 280 CALLS @ $2.30 WHEN HIGHER LOW OCCURRED. WE WANT TO SEE QQQ'S ACCEPTED ABOVE VWAP AND THEN NEW HIGH.
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WE ADDED 280 CALLS @ $2.05, BUT WE WILL SELL OUR ENTIRE POSITION IF THE QQQ'S CANNOT GET ABOVE THE LAST HIGH 281.66. OUR AVG FOR THE 280 CALLS $2.29
Trade active
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LACKLUSTER DAY TO SAY THE LEAST. WE SOLD OUR 280 CALLS @ $2.33. OUR AVG WAS ACTUALLY $2.18 SO IT WAS A MODEST 7% ROI. WE DO NOT BUY OPTIONS WITH A 7% ROI TARGET.
WE HELD OUR 277 CALLS AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY'S BUY @ $2.78.
MODEL IS PREDICTING A HIGH ABOVE 282.88 BY CLOSE TOMORROW.
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OUR OCT 9TH 277 CALLS WE PURCHASED WEDNESDAY @ $2.78 HAS AN OCO ORDER WORKING TO: SELL LIMIT $7.87 OR SELL STOP @ $6.78
Trade closed: target reached
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SOLD POSITION AT $7.87 SO ROI WITH $2.78 PURCHASE PRICE= 183% ROI
In your statment: "WE WILL BUY 280 CALLS TODAY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS: 1. FIRST 30 MINUTE LOW DOES NOT BREAK". When will you buy during the day if first 30 minute low is not broken: buy during the 2nd 30 minute bar or through out the day on minor dips or when price comes down to VWAP?
ETF-OPTIONS
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@bob650, BOB WE WILL BUY CALLS IF 30 MINUTE LOW HOLDS AT THE NEXT HIGHER LOW. IF THE 30 MINUTE LOW BREAKS WE WILL WAIT AND SEE IF WEDNESDAY CLOSE GAP ATTEMPTS TO FILL FIRST AND THEN LOOK FOR A HIGHER LOW.
ETF-OPTIONS
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@ETF-OPTIONS, THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE 30 MINUTE LOW BREAKS WITH THIS GAP. THE VWAP IS VERY IMPORTANT, AND ANY BUYING BELOW THE VWAP WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT THAT THE QQQ'S GET ABOVE VWAP AND ACCEPT IT AND THEN TAKE OUT THE 30 MINUTE HIGH.