Tom1trader
Short

Opening QQQ Sep 15 Bear Call Spread

NASDAQ:QQQ   INVESCO QQQ TRUST, SERIES 1
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/OsBXckpZ/
Although QQQ             tends to go its own way at times, it feels like a pause with the broader market. On the Chart The price has broken a long term rally and the same on On Balance Volume w ema . Both price and OBV are spending more time below shorter averages. Note the divergence OBV down when price up and now price looking to follow the volume down. I outlined the pennant on OBV it could be indicative of a change. Guess we will see which way :-).
The bottom indicator is just a histogram of OBV - weighted moving average of OBV. I find it useful to help read possible volume related triggers. The histogram crosses zero when the OBV crosses the wma .

This is neutral short as there is room for the price to go up and still profit.
Position:
short Sep 15 144 Call long sep 15 147 Call. This is a short (sold for net credit) vertical call aka             bear call spread.
Theta 1.85 - all else being equal this says the position will gain $1.85 per session through net decay in premium. (Premium drops, I buy it back for less = profit)
max profit loss 113 / 187. Profit target is 50-55 approx 50%. The probability of making 50% is 74% so exiting there increases the win rate, reduces exposure and frees capital for other trades.
Trade closed manually: Closed 1.01 db, quick gain overnight. I was resetting some calendars after one side rolls and I always put a profit close on next day for new trades (to avoid pattern day-trading). With my attention on the calendars set this up to close at 10% and it closed before I got back to review and correct it. So it was short of target still net $9.42. Got mostly right will just pay better attention to managing on the next one.
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