QQQ MAKING NEW WEEKLY LOW TODAY...SO WHATS NEXT?
First I want to apologize to trading view community for soliciting my services! I violated the rules, and I will do my best to not repeat that mistake again! (I am not supposed to use ALL CAPS-references yelling/shouting so I will correct that too! Below is a copy and paste from Monday Jan 4th-all caps sorry!)
January 4th Post:
WE HAVE TRADED THE QQQ'S OVER 19 YEARS AND THE QQQ'S HAVE OPENED ON MONDAYS AT AN ALL TIME NEW HIGH 39 TIMES.
IF MONDAYS LOW CANNOT FILL THE FRIDAY CLOSE GAP (HAPPENED 21/39 TIMES) THEN (48% PROBABILITY) MONDAY IS THE LOW FOR THIS WEEK. - (Oh we filled that gap and then some)
IF MONDAY LOW FILLS THE FRIDAY CLOSE GAP (18/39 TIMES ) THEN:
6/18 TIMES MONDAY HIGH WEEK (33%) - (Looks like that is the case this week)
5/18 TIMES MONDAY LOW WEEK (28%)
10/18 TIMES TUESDAY LOW > MONDAY LOW (56%) = 5/10 TIMES MONDAY LOW WEEK (50%) - (That will not be the case this week)
8/18 TIMES TUESDAY LOW < MONDAY LOW (44%) = 5/8 TIMES MONDAY HIGH WEEK (63%)
SO WHAT DOES THIS REALLY TELL US GOING INTO MONDAYS OPEN?
IT TELLS US TO BE PATIENT AND SEE HOW LOW THE QQQ'S CAN GO AFTER THE OPEN AND IF IT DOES NOT FILL THE FRIDAY GAP = BUY CALLS
IF THE 1ST 30 MINUTE LOW BREAKS AND QQQ CANNOT GET BACK ABOVE THE VWAP = NOT BULLISH AND BUYING PUTS MAKES THE MOST SENSE - So that is what we did, and i think you know it was a great trade!
We will admit to you we did not buy calls Monday at the low - sure wish we had...because the dead cat bounce was big..most of you following us know we buy calls about 8 to 1 puts...and we just did not pull the trigger!
So as i write this this morning the DOW is up 100+ points and the QQQ's are down over -$5.00, and our model does not recognize Wednesday as the low for the week!
We would expect a reflexive bounce after the open(maybe some Fibonnacci levels tagged), so we will sell 1/2 to all our puts (SQQQ calls actually) we bought at the end of the day yesterday. We just did not see anything bullish happening today, and buying puts at the close made sense as a low risk/high reward trade with the rationalization that todays low would not be above yesterdays high...I think we were right with that one!
So we will start the day off as day traders selling our short positions, probably buying some calls, and then scaling back into puts and selling the calls expecting a low this week either Thursday or Friday!
Good Luck!!!
January 4th Post:
WE HAVE TRADED THE QQQ'S OVER 19 YEARS AND THE QQQ'S HAVE OPENED ON MONDAYS AT AN ALL TIME NEW HIGH 39 TIMES.
IF MONDAYS LOW CANNOT FILL THE FRIDAY CLOSE GAP (HAPPENED 21/39 TIMES) THEN (48% PROBABILITY) MONDAY IS THE LOW FOR THIS WEEK. - (Oh we filled that gap and then some)
IF MONDAY LOW FILLS THE FRIDAY CLOSE GAP (18/39 TIMES ) THEN:
6/18 TIMES MONDAY HIGH WEEK (33%) - (Looks like that is the case this week)
5/18 TIMES MONDAY LOW WEEK (28%)
10/18 TIMES TUESDAY LOW > MONDAY LOW (56%) = 5/10 TIMES MONDAY LOW WEEK (50%) - (That will not be the case this week)
8/18 TIMES TUESDAY LOW < MONDAY LOW (44%) = 5/8 TIMES MONDAY HIGH WEEK (63%)
SO WHAT DOES THIS REALLY TELL US GOING INTO MONDAYS OPEN?
IT TELLS US TO BE PATIENT AND SEE HOW LOW THE QQQ'S CAN GO AFTER THE OPEN AND IF IT DOES NOT FILL THE FRIDAY GAP = BUY CALLS
IF THE 1ST 30 MINUTE LOW BREAKS AND QQQ CANNOT GET BACK ABOVE THE VWAP = NOT BULLISH AND BUYING PUTS MAKES THE MOST SENSE - So that is what we did, and i think you know it was a great trade!
We will admit to you we did not buy calls Monday at the low - sure wish we had...because the dead cat bounce was big..most of you following us know we buy calls about 8 to 1 puts...and we just did not pull the trigger!
So as i write this this morning the DOW is up 100+ points and the QQQ's are down over -$5.00, and our model does not recognize Wednesday as the low for the week!
We would expect a reflexive bounce after the open(maybe some Fibonnacci levels tagged), so we will sell 1/2 to all our puts (SQQQ calls actually) we bought at the end of the day yesterday. We just did not see anything bullish happening today, and buying puts at the close made sense as a low risk/high reward trade with the rationalization that todays low would not be above yesterdays high...I think we were right with that one!
So we will start the day off as day traders selling our short positions, probably buying some calls, and then scaling back into puts and selling the calls expecting a low this week either Thursday or Friday!
Good Luck!!!