https://www.tradingview.com/chart/OsBXckpZ/ Opened today when spot was ~144.70. QQQ in Oct 20th monthly expiration options long the 147 call short two 148 calls long the 151 call credit .36 Theta .81 Delta 10.81 max profit 136 loss 164. Anything lower than the break-even of about 145.50 will profit between 36 and 136.
No risk to down side. This trade is looking for a positive drift in price but will profit (70% probability) as long as the price does not blow through 48.50 and stay there. Max profit occurs at the short strikes (148.00). Actual target 28 (price stays low or drops) to 34 (25% of max closed to minimize exposure). In either winning scenario the trade will be closed with more than a week to expiration.
If price rises straight through it I will close the bull spread (+147 -148) in profit and roll the bear spread out in time with good probability of either profit or scratch down the line.
Trade closed: target reached
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Closed at .17/contract. This the low target but price drifting up to exactly the short puts (max profit) is a long shot, it happens but I usually put this type of trade on to remove either up (with calls) or down (like this one with puts) side risk completely. The upside risk was minimal also, during this trade the price got only within ~$2 of the upside break-even point.
Trade closed: target reached
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Additional note to above the .17 per contract is profit -comm/fees.
Oops on last line of initial posting - the rolling of the bear spread (the other -148 and the +151) is done only if it goes to a trade that makes sense. Since this is a defined risk trade the initial risk is acceptable and does not necessarily need a defense, it will just be closed if roll not good.