It looks like momentum is back and QQQ is getting ready to break out of the trading channel. Based on the COVID rally, I think we have a chance to add another 15%.
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Gaped up this morning to above resistance line and sold back down to end the day right on it. Tomorrow will tell us if resistance wins again or the market has enough momentum to stay above. If we can hold above tomorrow with a follow through on Monday, then I expect the bulls to rally hard towards my estimated 15%.
Here is price on the 2h.
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Resistance still holding, for now.
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Monday morning and pullback from resistance.
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Tuesday 4/2 and the market sure is indecisive. Still looking for some news to swing it one way or the other.
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Ouch. This may be a sign of a bigger pullback. It could just be a set up for another run to break resistance, or the market has finally run out of steam.
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Short of a run at the end of the day, this is still a lower high. Right now it was rejected off the center line of the purple trading channel.
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End Friday with a small pull back in the afternoon.
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Still updating this post. Here is what I see today on Wed 4/10. Lower-highs, but higher-lows.
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Triangle still in place.
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End of week and still in the triangle with lower highs and higher lows.
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QQQ gives it up with a bad day today and marks a lower low.
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Probably time to start a new Idea, so this will be the last one here. A lot of lines, but some possible near-term bottoms.
@diazipa, Monday open is a rejection off the resistance again. It seems the market want to keep working its way up the resistance line until it finds a clear reason to breakout or make a more significant pullback. The generally positive outlook on inflation and thus interest rates is keep QQQ bullish, but nothing has been strong enough to breakout. I would guess that this riding the resistance line could go on for weeks just slowly churning new ATH after small pull backs.
If I had to go out on a limb, I would say that I expect a larger pull back in the next month or so to build support for a run at breaking resistance. If it can't break it, then I would expect a larger follow up pullback as the big guys take profit. Overall, short of some disaster in the upcoming US election, I expect the market will stay moderately bullish all year in more of a slow and steady way. Something similar to 2015 or 2018.
diazipa
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@Dr_Roboto thanks for your feedback! I’m t does seem like we want to pull back a bit
brownian
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@diazipa the buyers have pretty much run out of steam .
diazipa
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@brownian what is your outlook for the month of April?
diazipa
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@brownian do you think we pull back in April or in May?
Dr_Roboto
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@diazipa, I am not great a predicting, but it does feel like we are at a top for now. I would not be surprised if we pull back to test the high from 2022 in the next month or so. I think that if we were going to breakout, it would have happened by now. With the threat of inflation sticking around and rate cuts possibly pushed back this year, it seems like a lot of the momentum has started to dry up. It is hard to predict because it's hard to know what is going to trigger a sell off or rally. What I do know is the market is bouncing off resistance of a 10 year old channel, and that is a good bet for a pull back in the near future. COVID showed us that long standing channels can be broken out of, but I don't see the same level of support as during the covid rally. The aI rally has been strong, but seems like it hit is limit, for now.
Dr_Roboto
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@Dr_Roboto, I quickly copied some pull back from 2021, 2022, 2023 and added them to the chart. This is what it looks like.
diazipa
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@Dr_Roboto makes sense!!!! Let’s see if tomorrow’s CPI will be the catalyst for some small pullback