Today was a massive green day; there's no doubt about it. We've had such a massive up day... that we've smacked right back into the old ceiling/resistance before on the Q's. Semiconductors and many beaten-down retail stocks are pumping like GME back in the day. I hope bears were cautious into a news event as significant as CPI, and were managing risk.
For some context, we are fresh off of one of the worst earnings seasons in the past decade-almost 50% of companies missed on their forecasts, and many large names(Like AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, etc.) got beaten down as a result of it. Moreover, inflation just came in at 7.7% which, although better than 8.2%, is still not good, and corporate earnings are still going to feel the hurt. Things are going to get worse before they get better economically, in my opinion.
Back to the charts, because that's what is most relevant right now- stocks can stay fundamentally irrational for long periods of time; we're back at resistance. Could we break out? Sure, I can't deny the possibility. That being said, I doubt it, and expect to see exhaustion from this rally in the near future; to my estimation, this is merely a bounce in a downtrend, and I've yet to observe any serious widespread accumulation patterns to make me flip bullish. Many names rallied incredibly hard today, and are going to need to take a serious breather should they even try to go higher. A question I would have for bulls... What market-moving names/sectors would realistically go higher to move indices such as the S&P and QQQ to go higher as well? Having charted just about every sector this morning, I'd struggle to answer that question and, thus, I can't envision the markets breaking out from here. That being said, I'm open to any discussion, and I try to not be as objective as I can in my approach. Best of luck all.
@LUC_Capital Yeah...try sometime next year. Anyone thinking THIS year was rough for financial markets or that "the bottom" is in simply lacks global macro experience to say nothing of US domestic macro, monetary and fiscal policy and how it ALWAYS plays out EVERY time.
@LUC_Capital, There is no way to tell we have hit the bottom until its in our past. My personal opinion about this semi-good news from CPI is this will bring more volatility to the markets. Bulls now have a reason to be possibly optimistic, while bears have very high inflation on their side. Our downward trend is likely to slow and we may see a more choppy flat market for the foreseeable future.
LUC_Capital
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@Surreal5335, Fair enough
Odd_Lot
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you should make that resistance band wider so you can seem smarter. Bears sound clever, bulls bank coin
ImminentDebacle
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@Bongie If you're bullish you haven't banked shit for 12 months and would be down at least 20% at best. Clown.
If you're a good trader then maybe you've made some money.
If you're bearish then you likely saved most of your money to buy after the bear market.
I’m up 20% ytd still holding some side sack on reserve hoping to catch a dashing 100’s or K’s % bull run. But being slow and on the spectrum of breakout regarded have only found them at their highs