Weekly Bias — 15 June

QQQ is sitting directly at decision resistance

• If Monday, QQQ opens above $721, holds $717-$721 & breaks ~$725, look for $724 → $732 → $740 → $744
• The next major liquidity pool sits near $744
• If Monday, QQQ rejects $724, loses $717, then $717 → $701 become the likely retracement

SPY finished essentially right underneath the pivot, ~$743

• As long as SPY stays above $726, buyers remain in control

IWM is still the strongest chart

• IWM effectively closed on resistance
• A breakout Monday likely targets $298 then $306
• Small caps continue to lead
• Usually supportive of broader risk appetite

Bears wanted a breakdown below $700, follow-through toward $677; instead, price flushed to

• $686 & immediately reclaimed $700, $717 & $721
• Looks increasingly like a completed downside sweep

From strongest to weakest

1. IWM
2. SPY
3. QQQ

Ironically this is bullish

• When breadth & small caps lead while yields fall, rallies tend to be more durable than when only mega-cap tech is carrying the market
• The strongest confirmation would be QQQ clearing ~$725 while IWM remains above $293 & SPY reclaims ~$743

QQQ

• $717 support
• $721 pivot
• ~$725 breakout trigger
• $732 first target
• $744 major target

SPY

• $743 pivot
• $760

IWM

• $293 breakout
• $298 target

A +2% futures gap on a credible Mid-East de-escalation headline changes the opening dynamics

• The question becomes is this a gap & go trend day or a gap & fade liquidity event?
• A +2% move projects roughly $735-$737 opening level
• Means the market would reclaim ~$724 (78.6%), clear $732 & move directly into the next liquidity pocket

The biggest mistake traders make on geopolitical gap-ups is assuming the open is the entry since most of the edge comes from determining the type of gap

1. Gap & go

• First pullback holds
• Opening range high breaks
• Volume expands with price
• QQQ $740 → $744 → ATH
• SPY $760
• IWM $305

2. Gap & fade

• Opens near $736-$740
• Can't make new highs after first 30-60 minutes
• Volume dries up
• VIX stops falling
• Then QQQ retraces toward $732 → $725 before attempting higher

18 June distribution as of Friday's close is centered around QQQ $730-$732

• A +2% gap opens the market above the highest probability levels
• Dealers likely need to chase delta higher
• Gamma can become supportive if price stays elevated
• This is how squeeze days develop

Given a +2% gap, avoid chasing $725 calls at the open

• Those were attractive Friday
• After a +2% gap, the better trade is usually to wait for a pullback into $732-$735
• Then 3 July 735C/740C
• Target $748-$750
• If QQQ gaps & goes with no pullback, wait for opening range breakout, then buy calls on confirmation rather than buying the opening print

The futures move effectively skips over the $724-$725 confirmation level & immediately puts the market into the $740-$748 resistance area, which is where the real test of whether this is a renewed uptrend or merely a headline-driven squeeze will occur

• FOMC this week is the biggest reason not to get overly aggressive chasing a +2% geopolitical gap higher

Monday

• Mid-East relief rally
• SPCX IPO afterglow
• Positioning adjustment

Tuesday

• FOMC positioning day

Wednesday

• FOMC statement
• September dot plot
• Warsh press conference

The market only has about 1.5 trading days before the next major macro catalyst

• The market has NFP, CPI, PPI, consumer sentiment & Geopolitical de-escalation, so now the remaining question is what does the Fed do with the dots?
• The actual rate decision is likely less important than 2026 dots & 2027 dots & Warsh's tone

QQQ is still the most rate-sensitive index

• If Warsh acknowledges easing inflation, sounds comfortable with disinflation & dots move lower, then QQQ likely clears $748 → target $760 & potentially $772 (138.2% extension)
• If Warsh pushes back on cuts, emphasizes inflation risks & keeps dots elevated, then QQQ could easily see $740 → $725 or even $740 → $717 because a lot of the recent recovery has been built on falling yields

The market is likely opening directly into the area where prior buyers got trapped, the wedge/bear flag failed & distribution began, so that area is not insignificant

• The sell-off volume was larger than the recovery volume, which is a strong reason not to view this as a confirmed breakout as of now, but more of a recovery phase vs trend resumption
• Given geopolitical relief & Wednesday FOMC, buy pullbacks rather than buying gaps

Support

• $732
• $725

Resistance

• $740
• $744
• $748

If futures hold, the key level is $740-$748

• Prior highs exist
• Sellers appeared
• Liquidity resides
• FOMC risk begins getting priced

Assuming futures remain near +2%

• Into Wednesday FOMC range between $732 & $748 (~50%)
• Breakout above $748 before FOMC (~30%)
• Gap fades back below $725 (~20%)

So expect the market to spend the next 2 sessions probing the $740-$748 supply area, then let Warsh decide whether that level becomes a launchpad toward $760-$772 or another rejection point as the most important level on the board shifts from ~$725 to ~$748, because that's the last major swing high standing between QQQ & price discovery higher