The Pre-COVID ATH points towards right in the middle of that channel, and a normal 8 year (now 12), correction by 33%
Short term (<4 months), I think we have a slow bleed into 2021 as we correct.
RISKS/CHANGES Possible: Big Stimulus drives the market up. COVID Vaccines come early and prove effective.
Baring these two things, I expect a short term downward trend that still has 20-30% to go.
* NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR *