Alright so I've been waiting to see how the month closed/opened and hoo boy it's a doozy.
Right off the bat I want to make the biggest point: November is going to be a gong show. Previously the NASDAQ and DOW were similar but what's been happening is that tech is seemingly going to not capitulate fully until then when a major (but probably not final) low takes place.
The DOW is much more affected by international capital flows and the escalations overseas are already causing a discernible capital flight to the blue-chips.
Some time frames to keep in mind:
Daily:
- Choppy week. Take profits on the regular. Size down if you swing. Every day will likely produce an opposite direction.
- October 5th is the strongest turning point for this week, is a direction change, AND also lines up with a volatility target. Possibly a high. If you wanna swing this looks like the best day for it. Watching futures currently melt up 1.7% overnight is really concerning. Looking at the broadening behavior on the 60 minute time frame I would consider a swing short overnight potentially at the upper trend line.
- October 11th is the strongest target at this level. Daily targets tend to shift around as information is added to the model so don't be surprised if it moves a bit.
*When the model is this choppy you need to zoom out your chart and rely on a higher time frame. In this case I wouldn't consider a mid-term bottom until we break out on the weekly level. The weekly chart is the important one anyways.
Weekly:
- (Current) Week of Oct 3rd possible green into the 17th.
- Week of Oct 10th is a continuation.
- Week of Oct 17th looks like a reversal down until Nov 7th. With the Communist Party and Fed meetings around mid October it's no wonder.
Monthly:
- November looks like a brief bottom. December and January could be the start of a bull run.
- November looks like a total mess. Panic cycles/volatility everywhere. I don't even want to know what its found right now.
- Forget about a 90% Great Depression style crash.
Sorry for posting this late. Work's been a killer.
Okay that's it. Time to chew some bubble gum.
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Okay so going short worked out lol. Probably bottom Friday. I don't think the week will close red however.
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AI has updated this week as a counter-trend reaction high. Load the shorts boys -10th and 11th look like the target lows. I'll be playing the employment numbers in pre-market with the SQQQ/TQQQ hedging I like to use. Sized lightly of course...
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Ok caught part of the move down but holy hell I forgot how much fun news days are lmao.
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I'll see about singing over the weekend at close. I still expect the week to be green but we have even more chaos Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. Stop loss set. I'm going back to bed.
"Watching futures currently melt up 1.7% overnight is really concerning" - Why do you consider it concerning?
cas34310
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@tintin300, Due to a direction change tomorrow, as well as the broadening formation on the 60 minute level. There's a potential for a pretty wild decline to fill the gap below.
UnknownUnicorn7131705
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@cas34310, It will happen, it is just a matter of time. The question is, which is the top? 3850, 3900, 4000?