I made some tweaks to my long-term wave analysis of the Nasdaq. I thought that there maybe a small correction then one more rally high up before a major correction. However, after some more noodling through it this morning, there is a more than zero chance that the upcoming corrective wave C may be it. The rally off the recent low (Wave B) in March hit 1.236 of Wave A exactly on Thursday (long pin up to touch it). That would be the end of Wave B. This puts us in either an Expanded Flat or Running Flat corrective wave (both end at 123.6% of wave A). Here are the options.
Running Flat -> Wave C = 61.8% – 100% of wave AB Expanded Flat -> Wave C = 123.6% – 161.8% of wave AB
That is a pretty big range to pick from. Based on my posted idea from yesterday, we have ended the super cycle motive wave for tech. Will this be the end-all corrective wave after such an impressive motive wave for the last few decades? If so, then an expanded flat would do it but it could take us all the way down to the 4500 range within a few months. Will the Fed pump give us a running flat that limits the pain in the short term, but we run the risk of a drawn out multi-year bear market that slowly and painfully works its way down to 4500?
FYI, the same pattern is developing in the S&P 500. The S&P looks to be in a Zig Zag Corrective wave. It hit 0.854 of Wave A instead of 1.236 like the Nasdaq.
Hope I am wrong and hope this helps. Good luck out there.
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Given today's surge, then gata9aigatai's comment maybe right. There is zero reason why the Nasdaq should take this big of a jump this morning. Up a little maybe, but 3-5%. Its all Fed pump. The coronavirus cases are out of control in many areas, worse than before. Yet the market makes one of its biggest morning rallies in weeks. The only logical solution is that the Fed is manipulating the market to counteract all of the bad news. There is no other explanation that I can come up with. They were trying to let the market come back to life on its own while the cases where down, but with a major rise in cases comes a major rise in the Fed pump. I still believe it is just a house of cards.
Absolute monkey chatter. QQQ going to 300 by August. SPY also going to new highs. It's obvious you have no understanding of Elliot. A big correction in Sep.
@Dr_Roboto, SPY is in an expanding triangle for the next 4-5 years. Higher highs and lower lows. No trend and all traders will e wiped-out. Good luck. The survivors will clean up as Dow heads to 100K by 2035
gata9aigata9ai
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Stock markets are and have, since 2009, been rigged to stop severe declines through massive central bank interventions. Reality is in abeyance. Under Bernanke -10% triggered interventions and Powell panicked at -15%. Markets are allowed to fluctuate but not seriously drop to low levels for extended time periods. Pandora's box of debt based unearned currency creation has been opened and only the rude fist of unintended consequences can close it again. Both parties and elites are ALL IN because inflated unrealistic asset values help them maintain control of the economic and political systems. They see no alternative and know only the middle class that depends on earned currency and benefits is being slowly destroyed. Their control of the media will be used to provide distractions and misinformation to the suffering middle while the dole and tokenism quiets the growing masses of government dependents. Markets will crash only when it is perceived that central banks are impotent. In other words, we're going up up up for now. Nasdaq 14,000 EOY.
Dr_Roboto
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@gata9aigata9ai, I don't disagree with your overall view. It is clear as day that the market is massively manipulated. Everyone's retirement as well as all investemetns now a days are completely based on stocks. If the market would crash in a major way, then everyone would be screwed. The problem is the Fed can only pump for so long. There is a limit to everything. The question is not "if" but "when" they will run out ammo. The rate (slope) of stock prices is reaching unmaintainable levels. Soon they will be almost straight up. If you look back at the dot com bubble, then this is exactly what it looked like. At some point, the governemnt will loose control and in a big way. Your right in that it could go way up from here, but there is always a price to pay. The right thing to do would have been to ease the market back up from the bottom in a manageable way, but I guess that does not fit the time table for the US election.