I don't normally trade equities, but this is a pretty clean chart. Clean enough to get me intrigued.
SPX already tested its W 200 MA. NASDAQ has been trending down with the rest of US equities, still hasn't reached out to that institutional benchmark, but as the bounce in equities has now reached out to confluence volatility resistances, it finds itself at a great spot to reject pivots defining its trend with the W 200 MA as an obvious target below.
Views from other timeframes I think are quite illustrative that we have likely nearly completed our bounce:
...and have a predicted weekly target at the W 200 MA:
I'm used to trading in the land of no fundamentals (crypto), so that's a factor I don't normally have to think much about. As I see it the US economy is likely 1-2 years from the end of its current business cycle, but has highly unusual political circumstances that are making many unthinkable black swan events totally thinkable, so it's sort of sitting under the Sword of Damocles and we could get an early catalyst on short notice. We could reactivate bullish quickly and I can just be wrong here, but I'm really more expecting either a choppy sideways year or a crash pattern, and right now, the local trend is down, so I'm on the lookout for opportunities to sell the rallies until proven otherwise.
I am an amateur and you shouldn't take anything I say as financial advice. I have particularly little experience trading equities. I'm trying to branch out and learn more about trading more asset classes, so I'd be very interested in any feedback.
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If I saw this picture on any crypto that I could margin short, I'd margin short. It wouldn't even be a hard decision.
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We ended up pushing right up to the line.
I mean, I'm as much of a true believer in my indicators as anyone but come on. This shouldn't happen. This being this clean is basically telling me that there's no FA interfering with the TA whatsoever.
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SPY is nearly as clean.
DIA less clean, perhaps because it's less important as an index, but it fits its previous pattern.
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and in complete fairness - the lines here are D charts. I originally posted this idea noting that we were hitting a level on the 60 chart.
So yes, I'm definitely not as perfect as the chart.
Wouldn't you wait for soe trigger for a short? Like a CCI roll-down or anything else that you find reliable.
@acatwithcharts
kiero
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Wouldn't you wait for a trigger for a short? Like a CCI roll-down or anything else that you find reliable.
acatwithcharts
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@kiero, That daily chart had a 14-period CCI entry signal when I posted this. Ended up rallying the rest of last week. Printed another CCI signal with today's selloff.
Overall chart got a bit less clean, with D mean reversion upwards possibly implied, though that level has repeatedly been stopped short of during the entire downtrend. I wouldn't be surprised to see it either reach out to it now or if this was us stopping short of it before heading to the W 200 for the higher TF reversion.
@acatwithcharts