JPMorgains

The Fasten Seat Belt Sign Has Been Illuminated

NASDAQ:QQQ   INVESCO QQQ TRUST UNIT SER 1
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If this is a market top, I'm thinking 70 is worst-case. Thoughts?

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Not necessarily. See http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school%3Achart_analysis%3Achart_patterns%3Abump_and_run_reversa
If you back up to the weekly chart and draw the lines since 2009, it looks like QQQ has been in the bump phase since mid 2013 and SPX has been in the bump phase since end of 2012.
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JPMorgains fishdude
First time seeing that pattern. So on the q's then we would be just starting to test the lead in trend and if broken where do you think that pattern would resolve? 50? Thanks for the link, good stuff.
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fishdude JPMorgains
I'm still pretty new to this, so I could be way off. If the bump and run reversal pattern plays out, it's possible we're just entering the "bump rollover" phase on the Q's by testing the bump line. This next week will confirm that or not. If it continues down this next week, that would mean we work down to the lead in line (78-80?) and if it breaks that, it could go a ways. I think the pattern says the expected move beyond the lead in line should be about equal to the distance the price made it above the lead in line. The Q's were 17 points above the lead in line on 3/6, so if it breaks the lead in line at 78-80, we could expect to see 60s.
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JPMorgains fishdude
Very interesting indeed. Thanks for sharing. Always glad to hear as many perspectives as possible. Good to be prepared for anything.
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fishdude JPMorgains
60 lines up with the 764 fib on your chart, so that's interesting too. I had been mostly neutral until Friday. Now I'm leaning bearish, but this next week will be important.
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JPMorgains fishdude
That would be a bad time in the world if it went to 60 that's for sure. We shall see. Have a good weekend.
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