N0tSwift

QQQ - Consolidating - Bull Flag - 2021 Down 'til then

Short
NASDAQ:QQQ   INVESCO QQQ TRUST
I see Qs in a downward trend with 3 week cycles that are getting narrower.
Projecting out into 2021, I think Sept-Dec will show to be a bull flag , but we have some distance still down to travel before then.

Bounce point 1 off black support line and up to green resistance will confirm trend. If be break bounce 1, a bounce off of point 2 still confirms general, but could contradict consolidation and point toward a bigger downward movement.

I was sucked into the post election & vaccine euphoria and hoped we'd started a new up trend, but we stopped at the Green Descending channel line and are quickly reverting to prior 3 week downtrend.

We still have months before the Vaccine is widely available, and it's going to be ugly until then.

*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR*
Comment: Sadly I was wrong. Now we'll see if it tops at 292 and drops or breaks through. It'll be interesting to see if it does end up staying in a consolidation channel. Break out upward and hold the next day would be a great bull signal to me. Lost a fraction on SQQQ this morning, but quickly switched into TQQQ and doing well.
Comment: Watching for 4 Key possible troubles spots on QQQ - 50/250 SMA X, MACD X, 294 price channel, RSI spike.
Comment:
Comment: We turned sooner than expected, but look to have hit resistance at the trend line and headed down. 3 of 4 of yesterdays boxes checked. High RSI, MACDX, Top of Trend reached.
50/250 SMA has not crossed and still contra indicative for Bull movement.
Comment: Qs now getting squeezed between the 200SMA on 30 minute chart and the trend line. Bearish 50/250 cross, bearish RSI spike, 3rd rejection of trend line
I think we keep consolidating in a very tight range and then a big directional move comes. Likely downward.

Tech bubble may have NASDAQ underperforming S&P500 for a while, if we do see confirmation with a big impulsive drop.
Comment: We keep plodding along sideways and down sandwiched between the 50 & 250 SMA and the trend line. At some point we break one way or the other.
55% odds we go up, still over above the 50/250 SMA and they're still pointing up.
45% odds we drop, trend is down, and we're over the 2008-2012 uptrend line.

Keeping 90%+ on the sidelines for now until a clearer direction is shown.

Attempts to bet on the upside on UPRO and a rotation to SP500 have been losers.
QCLN and USD holding strong and rising overall. Individual manufacturer stocks have outperformed indexes lately (F, GE, BA).
Comment: Bounced earlier than expected on 200 Day MA. Now higher than the 9/2 top.
Looks to be headed up.

Comments

Thank you!
+1 Reply
Nice. Thanks.
+1 Reply
Great analysis.
+1 Reply
N0tSwift TheKitchenTrader
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