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QQQ - Daily analysis May 03, 2021

Long
NASDAQ:QQQ   Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
"U.S. stocks climbed on Monday, the first trading day of May, as shares tied to the economic reopening continued to rise."

"Despite Friday’s weakness in equities, the S&P 500 notched its third straight month of gains in April, adding more than 5% to the index as investors bet on a big economic and profit recovery from the pandemic."

"The S&P 500 is now up 11% for the year. The benchmark closed at record levels on Thursday on the heels of blowout earnings results from Apple and Facebook ."

"Some investors are expecting weakness in the new month given the old “sell in May and go away” Wall Street adage. This mantra calls for taking off risk from May to October, a period where the market is more prone to sell-offs historically. Data going back to 1928 shows that the May-October period has the lowest average and median returns of any six-month period of the year with the S&P 500 up 66% of the time on an average return of 2.2%, according to Bank of America. The market might see mediocre performance from here especially after a massive rally from November to April, when the S&P 500 gained 28%, the bank noted."

"“Investors are gearing up for another busy earnings week capped off with a widely watched jobs report. Given the positive economic and earnings news, the path of least resistance appears higher,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital."

CNBC. (2021). Dow jumps 300 points to begin May, reopening trades gain. Available at: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/02/stock-ma...

Market is trending around all-time highs. My prediction is that the market will trend higher given the amount of recovery left. However, positive news might be baked into the numbers. Ultimately, it's difficult to say which way the market will trend. I'm expecting a trend higher in the next 2 months.
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