Michael Huang

Grind Up Till Year End Then Ouch!

159 3 3
Everywhere I look I see high flying unrealistic evaluations. Just a month ago everyone was calling for a correction at levels below these. While earnings has come in pretty positive as I expected, investors and traders have still driven the prices up speculating in high flying nonsense. I find it disturbing that the few companies that are actually priced less than their probable future cash flows aren't getting the attention they deserve. Instead investors pour into companies that won't earn what they are priced for 100 years even if they grow 500% like twitter (slight exaggeration). Currently I am feeling the sudden need to go to cash and wait for better deals. I believe that a correction to $90 will make the market far more attractive than it is and is closer to a fair value than current prices. Just so you know I think the P/E is nonsense. Discounted Cash Flow is a much more reliable way to evaluate a company's worth.

The RSI is showing a market that is running out of steam and is highly overbought. The chart shows a negative divergence which is bearish . The current rally may grind higher fueled by delusional fools who like to buy high and sell low until the end of the year. At the beginning of the year when fund managers decide they have had enough we could see a hard sell off hopefully to $90. The lower the better and the sooner the better. I would like to buy quality companies for a fair price. Good Luck! It's going to be a tough couple of months to trade coming up.
vlad.adrian PRO
2 years ago
People have been calling a top for so long. Valuations, Yields, Human sentiment, Put/call ratios, 5 Year cycle. The market is making highs after highs
Michael Huang vlad.adrian
2 years ago
I'm not necessarily calling for a crash, but I just merely think a pullback is due soon and would like to see some good solid companies fall to reasonable valuations. I don't want to pay more for a company than what it will earn in the next couple of decades.
vlad.adrian PRO Michael Huang
2 years ago
My comment was not necessarily about your chart, it was about the general opinion of traders :)
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