As you can see, we will be analyzing QQQ’s breakout from its macro downwards sloping resistance which dates back to January of 2022. After a full year of being rejected from this downwards sloping resistance, QQQ broke out in January of 2023.
What should we expect now?
As marked by the horizontal (yellow) line, the Q’s are currently at a strong local resistance. While price can continue to interact with this zone over the next couple of days, I expect it to continue on down and re-test the previous resistance as potential new found support. If it can, get a bounce from previous resistance (as support) and make a new high, the break out will be validated.
I will continue to monitor this chart, and will update this chart as it develops!
Let me know in the comments if you have any questions or thoughts as they pertain to this idea!
Always love your analysis Gareth. A true teacher for those willing to listen and learn. It's much appreciated! If price continues down, by the time we hit support at the "scene of the crime" at the down slopping trend line, I'd guess price will be in the 274 range or lower. If so, a confirmed breakout above the 311 yellow line would be a very strong move up, and may require some kind of supporting comments or news from the Fed. Though we survived earnings season, today's forward earnings forecast from HD and WMT might suggest that we are beginning to slip into a more negative economic outlook. I'm in the camp, that that if we do confirm a breakout above 311, it will be short lived, with resistance at both 322 and 332. If the DXY continues it's move up towards the 200 MA, that would make a breakout even tougher.
the1whogetsitdone
⋅
Hey Gareth,
Is it your view that price will move below the trend line and we will see further downside - retesting and eventually even going lower than the October lows?
BenGrobler333
⋅
Thank you
ieknopper
⋅
After completing the Winning Trader Series I can only come to the same analysis Gareth ;-). I can't wait to see what NVDA's earnings report yesterday does to the market.
Brandon388
⋅
Way down eventually
harrisonbe
⋅
Thanks Gareth! Should we make anything of a possible horizontal S/R line at 290-ish?