The QQQ is triggering a long setup on the right shoulder of a possible inverse head and shoulders. A (conservative) measured move of the head to the neck, from the lower right shoulder, gives a target of $302.40.
The FOMC meeting is on Wed 11/02.
News on 10/27: "Economists at BlackRock are speaking with financial advisers, saying that they are expecting "pivot language" at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting". If these rumors prove true at the FOMC meeting, the market and QQQ could have the catalyst to reach the target (quickly).
This idea is only based on the charts, but the FOMC could provide a catalyst.
Trade closed: stop reached
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Trade invalidated. Has now broken below the 'right shoulder'. The rumors of FOMC hike softening were just rumors, and they sold it.
@staffaction, yep for sure! this idea is already invalid to me and have been short overnight looking to cover soon
mountaincabin
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which fib tool did you use to target that? the "fib retracement" or one of the other ones?
FourC
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@staffaction, hey its the Trend-Based Fib Extension. i set it up with the 0.50, 0.618, 1.0 to find measured moves
mountaincabin
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@FourC, thanks! I'm still learning when is best to use fib extension vs. fib retracement tool.
FourC
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@staffaction, no problem. personally, i use this tool to find measured moves, and also when doing Elliott Wave Analysis (which i seldom do anymore). Its easy to use b/c you can measure the first leg of the move, then clamp down the second point to where you think the measured move should start from. i used the lower part of the right shoulder, but others will put the start of the measured move at the neckline break. A lot of traders will draw a box, and then copy the box and overlay it to show the next part of the measured move (see my chart i also did this along with the fib tool - so others would more easily see the measured move). The Fib Retracement tool is typically used to measure pullbacks to look for entry points, AND also to use the fib targets that are built into the tool like the 123.6% or 127.2% etc. It depends on what you are doing. If you trade with fibs, the built in targets can be useful. If you are trading patterns or zones, measuring the distance (for the measured move) and then projecting it with the fib extension can be very useful
mountaincabin
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@FourC, that is helpful. thank you. the appeal of throwing some fibs on a chart to me is to try to see how much room (up or down) the price could go. My exit strategy needs some work. So I've been looking for systematic ways to go off of more than emotion for swing exits. I'm also working with Keltner bands.
FourC
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@staffaction, no problem. fibs can work very well in my experience. i know traders that use the 127.2% fib and it can work well for them (put in -1.272 in the fib tool to have it project correctly). just gotta find what works for you!
sethsalazar70
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i posted this last night, good eye
FourC
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@sethsalazar70, oh very nice! great minds!? i already started small QQQ Dec call position today, and will add if warranted. Would love to see this idea pan out!