Gonna see a bounce higher this week, I think. CMF (26) is very (accumulation during the sideways chop last week) WPR(9) is heading south and if a failure swing develops, I am gonna have to be long from this pullback. At the money short expiration call options only here for me. Pricing models are up to you. Nothing stays flat forever note the kijun and senkou are pancake-like. Chikou span is in a pretty good position here as well. Moderately with nothing but blue skies ahead if price were to turn in the next day or two. It would only take a Tenkan turn to convince me to enter.
Trade active: I know I shouldn't post this but my opinion is that Yellen and company are going to surprise the markets by simultaneously suggesting rates should remain steady and point to a rate hike while hinting another cut could be in the offing. I am of the mind to suggest my position of buying the June 24 109. calls @76¢ and the June 17 108 put @ ¢70 as protection. Accept the loss on the put if wrong and sell it at the market by expiration and exit the long on the relief rally that seems to follow such announcements around 111. as I think if correct the rally will test the 111 level. The nice thing about this position is that I am afforded some time for the rally to ensue and if wrong, we'll know it very quickly. I offer no advice, just posting my position today.
Comment: Proper risk reward analysis is important here. This trade is profitable if the market falls below 106.60 and doesn't rise at all, if it rises above 110.40 before expiration, or get volatile into expiration. Picking and choosing when to sell out a position is your responsibility.
Trade closed: target reached: closed the 108p @ 1.61 this was a solid move to the downside. Expiration is tomorrow and I've got 130% on this side which breaks even and put 10% in my pocket. Now we wll manage the upside trade, which could take a bit linger to achieve. Either way 10%net in 2 days is okay with me.
Comment: Current price of the 109 calls expiring on 6/24 are @ 29¢. This move upside should happen in the next day or two as we are sitting on the make or break Senkou span B. The CMF(26) is still positive and WPR(9) is near the oversold area.
Comment: 109 calls exp 6/24 @ 37¢ steady as she goes. We may exit today, on a strong move up should the Brexit vote begin to lean decisively toward staying in the Euro. However, all the good news may be baked into the pie, as the vote results probably won't be available here until after 6pm (CST). If leaving the Euro is the final vote, tomorrow will be a pretty hairy day, and all bets would be off and we would take the position off at any price (at a loss) for a net gain on the hedge of 10%
Comment: selling @ the open into strength tomorrow have profit @ 83¢