The main assumption, that is unlikely to happen, assumes the coming wave will be proportional to the 2004-2008 rally. This is based off of the move out of 2020 being over 6 times the trough to peak percent gain during 2002-2003.
The lead in fractals and Bollinger Band behavior are similar. We are once again in an expansionary phase of real estate. General risk is arguably more elevated globally.
This cycle could be quicker, if money velocity increases massively. The liquidity providers are more than capable of doing this.