Among my favorite charts this time of year is that of RBOB gasoline futures. Often as Halloween approaches, wholesale gasoline costs start coming down significantly from highs in the summer. Call it a nice treat for commuters and families around the country. As it stands, the prompt-month of RBOB is now under $2.20 - that's a fresh 10-month low should we close here.
RBOB at $2.18 means that retail pump prices should continue their recent trend lower, eventually finding the $3.20 mark if the historical premium of about $0.95 holds. It's key to remember that the price difference between the futures and the retail cost of a gallon of regular unleaded depends on a host of factors - taxes, transport costs, refiner margins, and refinery outages being among them.
I see a bit more downside ahead on the chart. Consider that, according to seasonal data from Equity Clock, RBOB tends to move lower from mid-October through early December. That could mean gas prices under $3 in terms of a national retail average by, say, Christmas. Keep your eye on the low from last December - $2.05. Another layer of possible dip-buyers could come into play near $1.95. On the upside, I see resistance near $2.45 - the range lows from this past May and June.
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DemoDiaryFX_Trading
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thanks for providing your perspective
FXCM
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Especially when peak demand for gasoline fades in the US after the summer, we're quite likely to see price retreat. However, one concern would be the recent spike in WTI oil futures triggered by the ongoing geo-political tensions in the ME. Could gasoline futures climb above 2.40/gallon this week.