T-3-R-D

RECAF: Fundamental Analysis (Post Parabolic Run)

OTC:RECAF   Reconnaissance Energy Africa Ltd
I am NEUTRAL on this stock. If you got in early great, hold out and see what happens. Long story short I don't see retracement below $2.50

I think RECAF is going to be choppy and volatile until this first drill hole is complete.

I do think RECAF is going to stay afloat above 3.00CAD (around 2.50US). The company doesn't want to allow it to dip under $3.00CAD for 20 days because as they are seeking to call in 33 million warrants. It is fair to say there is going to be a bunch of selling. But If the volume keeps up it is going to chew through it regardless and I think we can look forward to another break out.

Really it is all about the buying power continuing to show up, how much more marketing they do to bring new investors at the dip, and whether they even whiff gas or oil on this first whole. They have stated that they will not release results until all 3 wells have been drilled. However if they hit gas or get streaks of oil out of cores coming from the well, it is going to leak and run the stock up. I'd expect a news release if it is obvious they have discovered any resource , and no news until april if they don't know what they have, or drill a bunch of dusters.

Investors might not like it, but the truth is this is ONE BIG PUMP, there is just no reason to dump.

Long term buy and hold if you believe in the project.

Short term I will consider buying the dip between $2.50 - $2.99 US. I am likely to sell everything I purchase on the dip between $3.25 - $3.50. For more leverage I will be trading Renaissance Oil Corporation. They have the option to drill the entire Botswana property within the Kavango basin. CEO is Craig Steinke is the founder of RECAF . I think it has more legs in it and better technicals for a short term trade than RECAF . Though it truly is complete arbitrage and still fairly dependent on RECAF performance. If we see RECAF push back up 50% I would expect closer to a 100% gain in RSNFF (ROE.V) - It is higher risk and even more speculative but I still think it is potentially early to buy in compared to RECAF .

This chart can extend and is how I will consider trading through February until the market behaves differently.

Upside if they find an economic resource $20.00 - to the moon. This is all about short term protection and selling and is indicative of how I will behave to continually derisk my investment. As the downside here is $0.00
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