With Rio Tinto expected to be a key player in the coming year, driven by a supportive macro backdrop (rate cuts, fiscal stimulus, and renewed demand for industrial metals), we view the stock as a high-conviction portfolio addition. That said, timing is everything.
At this stage, two primary technical scenarios can unfold:
Scenario 1 – Rejection at first resistance (more corrective):
If Rio Tinto fails to decisively break above the $82 resistance, price may respect this level and enter a broader corrective phase. In this case, a move toward the first major confluence of support around $60 becomes likely. This zone aligns with prior structural support and would offer a far more attractive risk-reward entry for long-term positioning.
Scenario 2 – Breakout and higher consolidation (constructive):
Alternatively, a decisive break and acceptance above $82 would signal strength and open the path toward the upper resistance zone. Should price fail to break through that higher resistance on the first attempt, a healthy pullback toward the $73 support confluence would be expected. This level would act as a higher-low and potential continuation entry, assuming broader market conditions remain supportive.
At this stage, confirmation is key. Rather than anticipating the move, we will wait for price to validate one of these scenarios before committing capital. This approach allows us to align with momentum while maintaining disciplined risk management.
We will reassess the structure once either resistance or support is clearly resolved and adapt accordingly. Until then, patience remains the edge.
Safe trading, and if you have additional insights or alternative views, feel free to share them in the comments. If you agree with this outlook, your support helps this idea reach a wider audience.
At this stage, two primary technical scenarios can unfold:
Scenario 1 – Rejection at first resistance (more corrective):
If Rio Tinto fails to decisively break above the $82 resistance, price may respect this level and enter a broader corrective phase. In this case, a move toward the first major confluence of support around $60 becomes likely. This zone aligns with prior structural support and would offer a far more attractive risk-reward entry for long-term positioning.
Scenario 2 – Breakout and higher consolidation (constructive):
Alternatively, a decisive break and acceptance above $82 would signal strength and open the path toward the upper resistance zone. Should price fail to break through that higher resistance on the first attempt, a healthy pullback toward the $73 support confluence would be expected. This level would act as a higher-low and potential continuation entry, assuming broader market conditions remain supportive.
At this stage, confirmation is key. Rather than anticipating the move, we will wait for price to validate one of these scenarios before committing capital. This approach allows us to align with momentum while maintaining disciplined risk management.
We will reassess the structure once either resistance or support is clearly resolved and adapt accordingly. Until then, patience remains the edge.
Safe trading, and if you have additional insights or alternative views, feel free to share them in the comments. If you agree with this outlook, your support helps this idea reach a wider audience.
Trade active
Taking a position in Rio Tinto todayNote
Rio Tinto beats forecasts with bumper fourth quarter outputNote
Rio Tinto has just reached its first major technical test at $96.From a higher-timeframe Elliott Wave perspective, Rio appears to have completed Waves 1 through 4 of the broader trend and is now advancing within a large Wave 5. Within this Wave 5, price has already completed sub-waves 1 and 2 and is currently progressing through Wave 3.
The $96 level is technically significant for two reasons:
It represents major horizontal resistance, and
It aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave 1, which is a classic target for a Wave 3 advance.
From here, price is expected to either consolidate or pull back modestly before making a final push higher, potentially completing the larger Wave 5 structure.
However, a decisive break and acceptance above $96 would materially change the outlook. Such a move would signal strength beyond the typical Wave 3 extension and confirm broader upside momentum. In that scenario, we would increase our position, as a clean breakout above this level would be very bullish.
Note
We will be taking partial profits at this level and awaiting price movement confirmation Trade closed: target reached
Glencore deal fell through and after strong returns we decided to take full profits. We will re-enter after a confirmed breakout from the resistance at $96
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.