Entry at open $28.09, SL = $23.23, TP= $102. EXTREMELY LOW RISK TRADE and HUGE UPSIDE. Willing to Risk 2% on this trade because of I am wrong I only lose 2% but if I am right this trade has potential to 360% Return. This trade reminds me of BTC trade I took last year around May with nearly identical setup but that was on the weekly chart. This trade is on Daily chart.
HUGE Pennant with already a weak breakout and rising MACD about to cross ZERO line on multiple time frames from 8 hour, 3D, Weekly. BULLISH slope to MACD with breakout of downtrend on MACD as well as smaller Pennant (Bright yellow trendline) appears to be ready to explode higher out of larger Pennant (tan dashed trendline). Price is also at MAJOR SUPPORT.
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So orginal plan was ENTRY @ $28.09 at today's open but price popped overnight. Instead I had to BUY @ $28.91. Trade is profitable so far and starting to EXPLODE as I mentioned. Looking to ADD to Position if I get the chance.
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Crypto in general is at a bit of Resistance zones in several tokens. BTC having trouble breaking thorugh upside Resistance of 64k.
I would not be surprised if we get a pull back in RIOT to the $30 level or som over the next day or 2. I plan to ADD to this position at about that level if give the chance. I will keep my TOTAL RISK the SAME. By that I mean that I plan to ADD to my Position but at the same time raise my SL. My total number of shares of RIOT I can own is based off of where my SL is in relation to my Entry Price. So, If I raise my SL I can now BUY More shares.
For Example, Lets assume i have a 100K account for easy numbers. I am RISKING 1% ($1000). My 1st Entry was $28.91. My SL = $23.23. So each share of RIOT would mean I lose 5.68/share of RIOT IF my SL is hit at $23.23. I bought 176 shares of RIOT ($1000 RISK/$5.68 = Total shares to BUY). If I raise my SL to $25.23 as I am thinking about then my current RISK is only $3.68 * 176 = $647.68. So I can RISK an additional $352.32. If I end up with 2nd Entry at say $30 then I can BUY 74 more shares (352.32/(30-25.32) = 352.32/4.78 = 74)
Thats the plan going into the next few days. I will be patient and see what opportunities arise. For anyone that is interested or wants to know more about HOW I trade feel free to message me or comment on here. I post some of my trades here mostly to help others on here learn. I know if it were not for some tat have spent the time educating me along the way I would not be as successful.
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Well my BUY zone target price of $30.71 to ADD to my position never happened. So Sticking with my 2% RISK allocation. Obvious POP today as price explodes higher for BTC. I am still expecting more to this probable parabolic move. If we get a big launch higher and higher I will look to take profits earler than my $102 TP. We will see how she plays out.
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POP up 8.6% today and printed a RED Candle today despite the pop. That suggests some SELLING pressure is building up. NOT a time to ADD to position, at least not yet.
Broke above resistance @ $39.35 to close at $39.86. Its quite possible that this move has caught people FOMO into trade and we could see a drop back below the $39.35 level or a retest of that level to pause before taking off again. Lets see what happens. Patience....
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Checkout my SHORT AMD idea.
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Placing a BUY order to ADD to Position at 33.51. I doubt it will fill but if we continue to get a retracement in crypto and Nasdaq then LONG positions may get shaken out and I get a bargain price.
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Still well into profit despite the pullback in all markets late in the day. Will look for a BUY opportunity to ADD to position at support as the market pulls back. Recently, pullbacks have been shallow and quick but with the recent break above double tops all over the markets in all sectors leading to new ATH in each of those markets we have yet to test the broken resistance as now established support. So I expect that to happen. I will be placing BUY orders at or very near those breakout support zones.
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Forming a small BULL Flag on 4 hr chart. Bottom of Bull Flag happens to be a horizontal support zone around $34.81 level.
Placing BUY Limit order to ADD to Position at $34.81. So changing it from prior BUY order discussed yesterday.
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I want to say this trade is working out as expected with EXPLOSIVE move to upside immediately after my entry. We are up about 53% since I entered this trade. But its actually surprising me how much of a move we have had without as much as a pause. This price action is unsustainable!!
Earning come out next week and we may have a rocket higher after that with great earning and then that woud be the last leg higher I would expect to go before a pullback. Its possible we have a pullback before then but this price action does not seem to suggest that at this time. So IF price launches SKY HIGH after earning then I WOULD book profits as price MUST revert to the mean.
I am still expecting price to retrace to 20 EMA if not 39 EMA (my preferred EMA to watch)
Raising SL to Breakeven. Seems odd to some of you that I would be willing to give back ALL my profits just to break even. But I do NOT think this is simply a 1 week trade. I am expecting to stay in this one for many weeks or months. So I am giving this room to move and establish a new TL and support/resistance levels. As the trade matures more I will raise SL for sure
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NO Changes
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ADD to Position Order placed with BUY Limit order @ $35.12
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BUY Limit Order Filled @ $35.11 average fill price.
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Another BUY LIMIT Order placed at Trend Line Support @ $33.89.
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BOTH BUY LImit orders filled today. Both are LOW RISK buys. We bounced off horizontal support and TL support. We are also forming a BULLISH Pennant. I am anticipating a slow grind higher over next few trading days and then likely take off higher again. Todays entries should prove to be the best BUY opportunities to take should that occur.
Also assuming we bounce here we will have put in 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows. Some use that as a definition for a new UPTREND. So again these entries from the start of the thread to todays entries may prove to be HUGELY profitable.
Lets see how the trade plays out. See chart below.
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Chart I posted from 11-18 is playing out almost exactly as I expected (Yellow Zig Zag arrows. Seems we are currently retracing to retest support and hopefully will continue as planned and bounce higher soon.
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Good Bounce today but need more follow through. With BTC getting hit a bit lately not sure we will get it this week.
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As expected did NOT get the bounce follow through. We have retested TL support. and following the latest chart posted on 11-18-21. I am expectimh more of a bounce next week.
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Bounced as expected and following my trend channel retracement almost perfectly. Hopefully some follow through tomorrow.
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Today was a bad day for nearly ALL markets. we are at support on most of my trades now. I think I will be raising stops to just under current price levels and like scale ot of all LONG positions before the end of the week and see what shakes out. Currently the entire market looks to favor a bearish bias. Not saying we crash here just think we pull back a bit.
I suspect that by the end of this week I will be largely in cash or slightly SHORT on all my positions and will likely get out of this one.
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Trade closed. Getting back to trading from a position of strength by stepping aside and remaining in CASH. Will reevaluate for new entries on several trades.
When the market starts to trigger several SL and breaking TL support on multiple trades it is NOT an indication my trading is flawed. It IS an indication that the market is changing. Today I got into CASH otherwise I have one SHORT position trade still on.
Correcting with the market a bit now but looks good.
eganon69
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@tosborn123 yes agreed. Will watch and see what happens. For now TL support has held.
tosborn123
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Beautiful
tosborn123
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This hurt but I think we are good from here.
eganon69
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@tosborn123, Sadly, I am afraid I do not share that same sentiment.
Price appers to be forming a new DOWNTREND (2 lower highs and 2 lower lows). We have 1 Lower High and 1 Lower Low but if we do not break out of the downtrend line I have drawn then I think we see lower prices. I am not going to feel even slightly BULLISH until we break above $33.05 which is the DAILY EMA 39. Then we need to break above the resistance of the downtrendline @ about $35.
The DAILY EMA 39 is curling and pointing DOWN. Price is currently BELOW that EMA 39. Price bounced off support (green horizontal line) which is GOOD and was rejected at overhead resistance of the weak trend channel resistance (dotted yellow line) which is BAD. That dotted yellow downward trend channel line Ii have drawn also happens to correspond exactly with the WEEKLY EMA 39 at $30.72. So we are ALSO Below the WEEKLY EMA 39 (which is BAD) and price was rjected there (which is BAD). Notice todays candle was a RED Candle spinning top which suggest indecision. Despite price rising 5% today it closed BELOW today's opening price showing there were few buyers to continue pumping price higher. The ONLY thing positive about todays candle was the break above yesterdays high and the bounce off support.
We need a lot more follow through after all the damage done in the last week. At a minumum we need to get above $33.05 and then $35 before I would be BULLISH again. Until then I am in CASH because the entire stock market, and crypto market looks very similar to this chart (except ETH and a handful of other stocks).
I will remain in CASH and wait. See chart below.
eganon69
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Will we bounce off support and break higher??
hi_milind
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I was able to make 15K profit trading RIOT options in last 2 weeks....your post helped a lot. Thank you so much! I still have 20 options that I am holding....hope the ER moves the stock further up.
eganon69
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@hi_milind, Awesome. And I don't even charge a 40/month membership fee for the things I post. LOL.
hi_milind
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@eganon69, 🙂..So what do you think about holding the 20 options?
eganon69
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@hi_milind, I am not an options trader. So I dont know how to advise you there.