As I said in my last post, we're past standard fibs and have extended to the downside in the micros. As for the larger pattern, the standard end for an ABC is between the 1.0-1.382 with possible extensions down to the 1.618 fib. At this time, I want to make things as simple as possible and concentrate on only the current pattern in front of us, so I have removed the yellow fibs. This leaves us with only one set of fibs to guide us, and they're from the downside pattern starting at the 27 July 2023 high.
Looking at only this, we can then deduce a possible conclusion for this thing to finally bottom. If it is to be a standard ABC down, it should end within the target box drawn. Worst case scenario, according to this count, is price extends down to the 1.618 @ $8.84. Should price bottom in the box drawn though, it should then rally to at least $19-$23. If it extends to the 1.618 then the target area for a retrace is $18-$22. How long this takes idk. It is a corrective structure, and they can happen quickly or be very drawn out. For now, this is all we have to go off of to form our thesis. MACD always makes its low within the A wave of a corrective pattern. As of now, that low is still in the beginning of Oct 2023.
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Last regular update: just letting y'all know I plan on trimming some of my Rivian shares monday. I will still hold the majority until the stock rebounds
Hope and pray that prices settle down soon. As it goes it is trading at sub 11. Let us wait for further data till the end of the month and take a view. Till such time, let us observe patience and no knee-jerk reaction warranted is my humble opinion.
Correct me if i am wrong Brother
KC00001
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@sriaishu thank you for always sharing your insight
Enterprise value is now 6B and quickly approaching zero. It’s wild how steep the selloff is since we hit nearly $25 not 90 days ago. Talk about a massive drop!
TheBuckeyeGuy
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@mentalBustard10373 Very concerning indeed. Will say on the other hand, Rivian can now focus on beating some very low guidance. They need an amazing R2 reveal. Some new contracts for the EV vans. The fed needs to cut in May at latest. I’m not entirely sure why this has earnings has been taken so bad. They have said multiple times they planned to shut down to improve the plant. Maybe the street wanted them not to do that and focus on R2 building? If they can break even or make money by Q4, this story will be a huge difference. Maybe everyone thinks they can’t pull it off.
davidg250692
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@TheBuckeyeGuy, Because it's not a profitable business, which was projected to reduces losses this year, now forecasting flat sales means those losses increase. The macro EV market weakness, added to seasonal weakness in sales given the time of year have basically made investors revalue this business over the coming year, even several years and down graded it significantly. There's no longer a fundamental reason for this stock to be trading where it was or higher.
Thanks for the update on RIVN.
Hope and pray that prices settle down soon. As it goes it is trading at sub 11. Let us wait for further data till the end of the month and take a view. Till such time, let us observe patience and no knee-jerk reaction warranted is my humble opinion.
Correct me if i am wrong Brother