Today was not a good day for Rivian to say the least. Maybe, looking back with hindsight, I should've seen this coming. We never hit the 1.0 extension @ $13.07 and that is normally a must have for me. Given all the other signals Rivian was given I chose to chalk this up as one of the rare times the 1.0 wouldn't get hit. We had and still do have major positive divergence despite this hard drop, the micros seemed to be behaving as one would expect for a move higher, price was bouncing around the larger 0.236 extension & in between the 0.618-0.786 retracement fibs. However, we still hadn't hit that 1.0. Then within 1hr of the earnings report, over 2M shares had traded hands and down price went.
Well due to all this volatility, we finally hit that elusive 1.0 extension. Somehow, even with the strength of this fall, MACD maintained on the larger timeframes. The question we're all asking now, how low does this thing go? Unfortunately, I can't give that answer right now, but the 1.0 is a very common end point. Those of you that had commented today saying price is going here or there, I encourage you to share with the others how you came to that conclusion. Rather it be different indicators or fibs, it would be nice to know how you came to your conclusions. As of now, the medium and micro counts are obviously busted, and this is a deep retrace for the larger count.
According to EWT guidelines, this structure has met all the needed parts to be considered complete. I think it could still easily need another slight low to complete this last move down and bottom on neg div within the micros. It is possible for B waves to extend below the origination of A waves, but for obvious reasons I would prefer that not to happen. Again, if you feel strongly that it will move sub $11.68, I encourage you to post that with evidence and not just feelings. Feelings are obviously running strong right now with people either feeling justified or defeated.
With this recent drop, it lowers the larger target for wave (C) to $30.99-$43.56. How long it takes us to get there idk. As long as this count stays intact the end target remains in that area. The lower this count moves the lower that target moves too as long as the count stays intact. MACD gives no inclination the larger count will invalidate, and if anything, verifies this is C of (B) as MACD didn't make a new low. Only time will tell though, after today I wouldn't be surprised if we will get some kind of a retrace tomorrow. If we get a decent one, I may trim some shares to then pick them back up at a lower price. If we don't, I will continue to hold for now. I'm going to be very busy tomorrow so idk how closely I will be able to watch the markets, but if I make any trades, I will post them on here.
Don't forget, beginning February 23rd (this Friday), I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My last regular post / update will be on that day.
Thanks for the update. It was a royal shocker to all of us the way prices reacted and continue to react. I believe the $15 will hold on irrespective of the outcome of the results. But that was not to be.
I appreciate your work greatly and as you know I have learnt a lot from you though not scientifically but my approach to seeing the stocks have changed radically. To bring up again we have ridden the last two rides in this stock, it was an amazing experience for me. Your approach which is a science still amazes me. We have many instances where your work was appreciated because of the experience I had in every trade.
In this case, the only mistake on my part was a bias I created in myself and also not apply a stop this time. You kept sharing with us a level of 14.73 to 15. In this case, too, a retracement will happen, and let us act then, for a portion, and still hold it. I am sure it will.
To sum up,
This according to me is a black swan kind of day for RIVN. I made a huge error in the Indian markets way back from 2012 to 2015, by buying a stock., It went up down 50% and remained an underperformer till 2015. I just converted a trading position into an investment position then, since I did not want to book a loss since it was tough to do. In 2016-2017 it went on to give a 6 bagger from there.
Brother, You have done a great job of changing my perspective with your analysis. I thank you for everything and will continue the journey of learning.
TSuth
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@sriaishu thanks for the support brother. it's always appreciated to hear from you. God bless you brother!
Kindly do not simply my appreciation. My statements include appreciation too. Whatever I write here, is my experiences with your everyday posts.
To make a long story short. Read on about how I have benefitted from looking at your posts for almost 18 months.
1. You Make an observation: You observe a pattern in the world. 2. Ask a question: Why does it behave that way? 3. Form a hypothesis: Make an educated guess that entails a testable prediction 4. Experiment: Conduct experiments to test your prediction. If a prediction turns out to be incorrect, refine the hypothesis, and if it turns out to be right, test more. 5. Test more: Subject your hypothesis to further rigorous testing, and if it still stands the scrutiny, generalize 6. Induction: Generalize and form a theory based on inductive reasoning.
I maintain a cloud burst as a diary and document many of my daily experiences. When I revisit it gives me enormous insights. I respect your intellectual honesty always. Kudos to your efforts. I am sure HE is listening to our chat too.
TSuth
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@sriaishu He is always listening. Thanks, brother! Your words of wisdom are always welcomed!
goldy1975
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@TSuth, brother thanks for the update. Bad day for me who was already down 50% and hoped to get some profits with this trade but down 80% on this one. But I only invest what I am willing to lose so no regrets (All options). Life is ups and downs we see all around us all the time and sometimes we ignore them as we they are so subtle such as our heart rate, breathing patterns, blood sugars, daily temp. It's everywhere in nature. So today's fall was part of the same big pictures but sometimes these hurt and we should be willing to take that pain, as they say "No Pains, No Gains". I hope with your expertise we will be profitable in other trades.
God Bless You and Yours Brother!
TSuth
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@goldy1975 thank you for the support brother, much appreciated! God bless you as well! 🙏
Alibaba5151
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#TSuth From last year of August to now it looks like zigzag 5 3 5 C wave is extended but usually it retires to 100% 11.30$ if it doesn’t hold then 127.20% 7.68$ could reach to that price I cannot confirm the company is doing great so i don’t believe that # 11sh will be the best then will start heading back up and also thank you for everything you do brother god bless you
Alibaba5151
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@TSuth I just purchased calls for July I still believe in your path if it breaks 11.25 I will come out because it will retrace to the following fib of 127% 7.68 to 161% 3.03$
Alibaba5151
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I’m holding “
TSuth
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@bataladen2016 God bless you too brother! I'll make another post tonight
Thanks for the update. It was a royal shocker to all of us the way prices reacted and continue to react. I believe the $15 will hold on irrespective of the outcome of the results. But that was not to be.
I appreciate your work greatly and as you know I have learnt a lot from you though not scientifically but my approach to seeing the stocks have changed radically. To bring up again we have ridden the last two rides in this stock, it was an amazing experience for me. Your approach which is a science still amazes me. We have many instances where your work was appreciated because of the experience I had in every trade.
In this case, the only mistake on my part was a bias I created in myself and also not apply a stop this time. You kept sharing with us a level of 14.73 to 15. In this case, too, a retracement will happen, and let us act then, for a portion, and still hold it. I am sure it will.
To sum up,
This according to me is a black swan kind of day for RIVN. I made a huge error in the Indian markets way back from 2012 to 2015, by buying a stock., It went up down 50% and remained an underperformer till 2015. I just converted a trading position into an investment position then, since I did not want to book a loss since it was tough to do. In 2016-2017 it went on to give a 6 bagger from there.
Brother, You have done a great job of changing my perspective with your analysis. I thank you for everything and will continue the journey of learning.