$RKT Elliott Wave Setup — Wave (3) of 5 Loading

Jan 21

RKT
Elliott Wave Setup — Wave (3) of 5 Loading
Daily | $21.65

Count:
✅ (1) Complete — Nov
✅ (2) Complete — ABC to $17
🔄 (3) In Progress → $29-30
📍 (4) Projected → $23-24
🎯 (5) Terminal → $39.60
Levels:
❌ $17.00 — Invalidation
⚠️ $21.41 — Channel support
📍 $21.65 — Current (0.5 fib)
🔼 $24.88 — Wave (A) high
🔼 $27.48 — 1.0 fib
🔼 $30.34 — Wave (3) target
🎯 $35.00 — 1.618 ext
🎯🎯 $39.60 — Wave (5) / 2.0 ext
Confluence:

Channel support holding
0.5 fib retracement zone
Wave (B) of (3) completing
ER Feb 19 = catalyst for Wave 3 impulse

R:R:
Entry: $21.50
Stop: $20.00
Target: $39.60
R:R = 12:1
Sitting at channel support + 0.5 fib + Wave B completion zone. This is the entry.
🎯🚀

Jan 21

Note

RKT Macro & Catalyst

MACRO
Rate Environment:

Fed cut 3x in 2025, rates at 0.75% in Japan creating global yield pressure
10Y UST at 4.27% — off highs but elevated
Mortgage rates ~6.5% — down from 7.5% peak
Every 50bps drop in mortgage rates = refinance boom for RKT

Housing Market:

Inventory still historically tight
Home prices stabilized — affordability improving at margin
Purchase demand muted but refinance wave building
Spring selling season Q1-Q2 = volume pickup

RKT Positioning:

#1 retail mortgage lender in US
Gained market share during downturn (weaker players exited)
Tech-forward platform = operating leverage when volume returns
Balance sheet clean, ready to scale

Sector Tailwinds:

New Fed chair decision this week — dovish pick = mortgage rally
Small caps outperforming (Russell +7% YTD) — RKT fits the profile
Financials rotating as rate fears ease


CATALYSTS
DateCatalystImpactThis WeekFed Chair announcementDovish = 🚀 / Hawkish = choppyJan 29FOMC MeetingRate guidanceFeb 19RKT EarningsVolume + guidance = main eventQ1 2026Spring housing seasonOrigination pickupOngoingRate cut cycle continuationRefinance demand driver

WHY NOW

Technical: Channel support + 0.5 fib + Wave B completion = textbook entry
Macro: Rate cycle turning favorable for mortgage originators
Catalyst: ER in 4 weeks — positioned ahead of event
Sentiment: Under the radar — no one talking about mortgage plays yet
Flow: $65K in $18C Mar (deep ITM) spotted earlier — institutional accumulation


RISK

Inflation re-acceleration → Fed pauses → mortgage rates back up
Greenland/tariff escalation → risk-off drags small caps
ER miss / weak guidance
Below $20 = wave count invalidated


TL;DR
Rate cycle + spring housing + ER catalyst + technical confluence = high conviction long.
Entry zone NOW. Target $39.60. Stop $20.

Jan 23

Trade active

Jan 30

Trade closed: stop reached